When the iPhone 17 series was announced earlier in September, early demand appeared encouraging. Analysts at Wedbush noted that initial preorder activity was tracking 10 to 15 percent ahead of last year’s iPhone 16 cycle, especially for the higher-end models. Those early signals led to optimism that Apple could see a stronger product cycle and support its share price after a subdued summer performance.
However, more recent data shows a different picture in the U.S. Jefferies reported that lead times for iPhone 17 models in the American market have fallen sharply, in some cases reaching zero days, while other regions such as China and Europe still report longer wait times.
This cooling trend raises questions about whether Apple can sustain momentum in its largest revenue market as the holiday season approaches.
Early Hype, Orders & Lead-Time Trends
The iPhone 17 launch began with strong signs of consumer interest. Analysts pointed to preorder volumes that initially surpassed those of last year’s iPhone 16 cycle. Wedbush Securities reported that early demand was tracking between 10 and 15% higher than the previous year, particularly for the Pro and Pro Max models, which remain Apple’s most profitable devices. This early momentum suggested that Apple might enjoy a stronger-than-expected cycle, giving its stock a short-term boost.
One common measure used by analysts to gauge demand is lead time, the number of days consumers must wait to receive their new iPhone after placing an order. Historically, extended lead times have signaled strong demand, while shortened times often indicate slowing orders or better supply availability.
During the initial weeks of iPhone 17 availability, lead times were noticeably longer than in prior cycles. Bank of America noted that the standard iPhone 17 had an average wait time of about 18 days, compared with roughly 10 days for the iPhone 16 at a similar stage.
As September progressed, however, a divergence began to appear. In several international markets, wait times for iPhone 17 models remained elevated, showing sustained interest. In contrast, U.S. lead times started to shrink sharply, with Jefferies analysts noting that delivery estimates for some models had already fallen to zero days.
This reversal has raised concerns that the early wave of orders in the U.S. may have already peaked, leaving Apple vulnerable if fresh demand does not materialize in the coming weeks.
U.S. Market Weakness vs Global Markets
The United States, Apple’s largest revenue contributor, is emerging as the weakest market for the iPhone 17. Analysts tracking lead times across multiple regions have consistently found that U.S. demand has cooled more quickly than expected.
Jefferies described the U.S. as the weakest of the six major markets it monitors, noting that wait times for new models have already disappeared, while other regions continue to show longer delivery schedules.
In contrast, markets such as China and Europe are still showing signs of resilience. Reports from suppliers suggest that Apple has even asked for increased production of the entry-level iPhone 17 in response to unexpectedly strong preorders in China. European carriers also report higher-than-average interest in the Pro lineup, helping offset some of the weakness in North America.
Several factors may explain why the U.S. cycle is lagging. Analysts point to “upgrade fatigue,” with many American consumers already owning recent models that make a new purchase less urgent.
Others highlight economic concerns, as higher living costs could be limiting appetite for premium-priced devices. Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook also acknowledged that U.S. sales patterns were distorted earlier this year when many customers pulled forward purchases to avoid potential tariff increases, leaving fewer buyers for the current cycle.
This split between U.S. and international demand underscores a growing concern: Apple’s reliance on its home market may now be more of a vulnerability than a strength.
Analyst Views, Risks & Bull/Bear Cases
Analyst opinions on the iPhone 17 cycle are currently divided, reflecting mixed signals from the U.S. and global markets. Some experts remain optimistic, pointing to sustained international demand and a strong installed base.
Evercore reported that a survey of roughly 4,000 U.S. consumers indicated that 56 percent plan to purchase a Pro or Pro Max model, leading the firm to raise its Apple price target to $290. Wedbush Securities also upgraded its target from $270 to $310 after reviewing early sales data and noting robust preorder trends in key overseas markets.
On the other hand, more cautious analysts highlight the weakening U.S. demand. Jefferies maintained a hold rating with a target of $205.82, citing rapid declines in American lead times and potential consumer fatigue.
Some analysts warn that Apple’s core hardware growth may be approaching saturation, with upgrade cycles lengthening and competition from Android devices intensifying.
Key risks include further U.S. sales declines, supply chain disruptions, and broader economic pressures that could reduce consumer spending on premium devices. Even so, Apple retains advantages such as a strong ecosystem, growing services revenue, and significant cash reserves, which can help mitigate short-term weaknesses.
Investors are closely watching upcoming sales data and quarterly guidance for clues on whether the iPhone 17 cycle can meet expectations.
Conclusion
The cooling of iPhone 17 demand in the United States has implications for Apple’s near-term revenue and market expectations. Analysts note that if U.S. orders continue to decline, Apple may face pressure on quarterly sales and gross margins, particularly as the holiday season approaches.
Monitoring preorder trends, lead times, and actual sell-through data will be critical to understanding whether the initial weakness is temporary or a sign of broader market saturation.
Investors should also watch Apple’s upcoming earnings report for commentary on regional performance and any adjustments to production or marketing strategies. Global markets, including China and Europe, may provide partial support, but sustained U.S. softness could weigh on overall guidance.
Other indicators include pricing trends for Pro and Pro Max models and competitive activity from Android manufacturers. Analysts will be particularly attentive to any early signals of whether Apple can maintain momentum in its largest market while relying on strong demand overseas. The coming weeks will clarify whether the iPhone 17 cycle can meet expectations or if adjustments will be necessary.