Tesla shares usually behave like they are betting on the promises of the future instead of the present situation. However, there comes a point when the market stops, looks forward, and questions if the destination is closer than we think, or are we still in the process of recalculating the route?
The arrival of that moment this week is marked by a 3.1% slump in Tesla’s stock value, as skeptics regarding the speed of the company’s robotaxi ambitions compared with Waymo keep on growing.
The latest Tesla pullback is due to more than just news, it is becoming evident through the charts as well. The stock is still trading above its 50-day simple moving average, which is around $446 and is providing dynamic support.
Also, the 200-day SMA, which is approximately at $341, indicates that the long-term increasing trend is still there. However, the momentum has indeed slowed down significantly. The Relative Strength Index is currently at around 52, which is in neutral area, and the MACD histogram has begun to contract, which indicates a withdrawal of bullish momentum rather than a decisive reversal.
On the other hand, trading volume has also dropped in the last few days, which could mean that the buyers are not very convinced about the price being at such high levels.
From a technical point of view, if the price doesn’t break convincingly above the $498–$500 resistance zone, the bears might push the price down to $442 and possibly $428, which are both previous breakout support levels.
Conversely, if the price breaks above $500, the consolidation would be considered invalid, and a sharp move towards $520 would open up.
The options data adds up to the feeling of uncertainty regarding Tesla’s short-term direction. The implied volatility remains high, particularly around the $500 strike, which indicates that there are expectations for a large price movement once the stock breaks out of its current range.
Open interest is gathered around the $470 and $500 price points for both call and put options, emphasizing how significant this zone has become. The range between these two prices is likely to see frequent movements until a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs. These movements will be mainly influenced by news and speculations about earnings rather than technical factors convincing the market.
A major operational concern weighs heavily on the market’s sentiment. The limited deployment of Tesla’s robotaxi in Austin has caused attention on the considerable difference between the company’s ambition and the actual execution as compared with Waymo.
Tesla’s service began silently in June with about thirty autonomous vehicles, most of them still needing human safety monitors inside. In contrast, Waymo started its service in Austin in March and has around 200 fully driverless cars that carry passengers with no human supervision.
The gap between the two companies’ performances is so wide that it is hard to ignore. Waymo, which developed self-driving technology from 2009 onwards, has already delivered more than 14 million rides for which customers paid, and it operates in five large U.S cities.
The company co-owned by Alphabet is planning to add 20 more cities including Dallas, Miami, and London by 2026. The plan of Tesla to have a presence in eight to ten cities by January 2026 for its robotaxi is increasingly perceived as a mere promise, more so because it still needs human monitoring for its paid rides in San Francisco and Austin.
Tesla’s vision-only, software-first autonomy approach is still controversial in the industry. While lidar-based competitors keep on showing higher levels of operational readiness, Tesla’s path seems to be longer and more uncertain.
Elon Musk has a long history of over-optimistic timelines regarding autonomy, such as his 2019 forecast of one million robotaxis by 2020, which has made investors more cautious about taking short-term forecasts at face value.
As per the local witnesses at Austin, Waymo cars are so much more often seen, compared to those of Tesla. It raises the idea of Tesla’s robotaxi program being still in an early commercial stage.
On the other hand, analysts start to consider Tesla’s self-driving car growth as a long-term option and not a short-term growth engine. This leads to the question of the extent to which today’s valuation could be justified without measurable progress in scale and approval of the regulatory.
Tesla’s major catalyst ahead will be its Q4 earnings report. In the bullish scenario, there would be no clear indications of the company’s collaboration with the authorities, which would lead to the share price being able to exceed $500, thus opening a path towards $520 to $550.
Otherwise, the base case suggests Tesla remains bound to the range between $450 and $500 through early 2026. Investor sentiment is still divided between hoping for Tesla’s long-term self-driving dream and worrying about the factors like cooling EV demand, governmental control, and competition that are getting more intense.
Tesla’s stock may still be priced for the future, but the market is getting more and more impatient, and is demanding evidence in the present. Until robotaxi rollout significantly picks up, and the gap with Waymo gets closed, the investors are likely to stay cautious.
This will keep Tesla shares being trapped in a volatile holding pattern where only faith can no longer be enough to push the stock price to the next higher level.
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