Why Billionaire Peter Thiel Is Betting on Microsoft Stocks Over Nvidia and Tesla

When Peter Thiel makes a move, it is very noticeable. As he was the person who first invested in Facebook, which later on became Meta, assisted in the making of PayPal, the fintech era was still in its infancy, and he founded Palantir as well.

Thiel’s name does not align with hype, instead he is the one to arrive first and depart just before the crowd acknowledges it. This definitely raises questions among the investors that what does he see that others do not.

What Makes Thiel’s Portfolio Moves So Important

Due to Peter Thiel’s hedge fund, Thiel Macro, being over $100 million, it has to make its disclosure of equity holdings via quarterly Form 13F filings with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission.

These filings, which are open to the public for 45 days after each quarter end, give a unique insight into how one of the most influential investors is positioning himself.

The latest information represents stocks as of 30^th September, and even if the markets change quickly, the magnitude of Thiel’s decisions still justifies their examination even after a few months.

Leaving Tesla and Nvidia

Thiel’s holdings at the end of the second quarter included more than 272,613 shares of Tesla and 537,000 shares of Nvidia. By the time the third quarter was over, it had undergone a radical transformation. The number of Tesla shares he owned was reduced to about 65,000, while the Nvidia shares were completely eliminated.

The Nvidia share sale was particularly dramatic, considering the company’s crucial part in the artificial intelligence market and its almost magical appeal among AI investors.

However, Thiel did not entirely give up on technology. Instead of going for the safer sectors like healthcare or industrials, he put money into two well-known mega cap companies, which is Apple and Microsoft. This move does not indicate that he has given up on AI, but is a better way of earning from it.

Apple is not the Main Bet

Apple’s arrival in the list was unexpected, as so far its AI plan has not managed to capture the investors’ interest. Even though the company has indicated a more extensive AI involvement, it still lags behind the competition that has gone all out with developing AI-based products and services.

Considering Apple’s current situation, it is very likely that Thiel was not betting directly on AI when buying the stock, unless he is aware of something that the rest of the investors do not know. This uncertainty makes Apple the less attractive side of the deal.

Microsoft’s Complicated History

Microsoft has already been included in Thiel’s portfolio and was a part of his investments. However, he has not had a steady relationship with the stock. At the end of Q4 2024, he had no Microsoft shares in his possession.

In Q1, he acquired around 80,000 shares, sold the entire position in Q2, and then came back in Q3 with nearly 50,000 shares. Microsoft’s stock has dropped about 6% since 30^th September, and is still around 2% lower than its June-end price.

This pullback means that Thiel’s timing may indeed look better now than when the trade first showed up in the documents. If his belief is strong enough for him to hold onto it, then arguably the current price is more inviting for him to enter than the one he initially picked.

Microsoft’s AI Strategy

Microsoft has decided to go for a different approach in strategy than the others. Instead of building an in-house system, Microsoft took a giant step forward by partnering with OpenAI, and gained an approximate 27% stake in the profit-making OpenAI Group, PBC.

The partnership provides Microsoft with the opportunity to apply the most advanced AI in its products without having to experience the model development risk.

ChatGPT has become the driving force of Copilot that covers Microsoft’s Office suite, Bing search engine, and the Windows operating system. Still, OpenAI does not represent the only AI friend of Microsoft.

The company, through its Azure, provides users access to several AI models, including Claude by Anthropic, Grok by xAI, Llama from Meta, the cost-efficient R1 model from DeepSeek, and others.

This wide range of models give power not to Microsoft as an advocate for one model, but as a neutral platform that encourages the growth of the entire AI ecosystem.

Azure is the Star

The advantage of this neutral strategy can be observed. Azure was one of the main contributors to the 40% growth rate, which was reported for the first quarter of Microsoft’s fiscal 2026 period that was concluded on 30^th September.

The cloud sector has been the chief of the entire Microsoft ecosystem, and demand being AI-driven is the pivotal factor that is granting it more time and space to grow.

Microsoft’s infrastructure layer strategy for AI, instead of choosing a sole winner, is clear evidence of the company’s wise management. If Azure’s growth rate remains this high until 2026, Thiel’s bet could be considered more insightful than being conflicting.

Bottom Line

Thiel is not after the most apparent AI winners, instead he seems to be giving his support to the firm that gains from the success of others. The distinction of Microsoft being an AI enabler rather than just a participant gives it a lot more than just a commanding advantage in a rapidly saturating market.

Although investors are strongly advised to not follow the trades of billionaires’ blindly, Thiel’s renewal of faith in Microsoft provides an attractive reminder that sometimes the smartest AI investment is not the most visible one.