The year 2026 has seen Bitcoin start off on a relatively better curve, as it recovered above $90,000 after going through the worst previous year where the cryptocurrency has had a 5% downtrend, the first year of yearly decline since the 2022 crash.
Bitcoin began 2026 with renewed strength, up roughly 8% since the beginning of the year as institutional inflows, derivatives positioning, and geopolitical developments combined to boost sentiment across crypto markets.
It has its market capitalization of around $1.08 trillion, and the daily volume of being bought and sold is close to $47.25 billion, which highlights its size and continuing volatility.
A Difficult 2025
The previous year witnessed a significant pressure on Bitcoin as a result of macroeconomic factors. The risk appetite dampened in markets due to the rising rate of unemployment which reached its highest level since 2021, 4.6% in November.
However, in comparison to gold, which had the advantage of having been historically treated as a safe haven, Bitcoin could not compete, acting more as a speculative than an inflationary hedge.
According to Coin Desk Data, bitcoin has already experienced a 32.7% decline between March and August 2024, as well as a 31.7% decline between January and April 2025. Jacob Joseph, senior research analyst at Coin Desk Data, told CNBC.
“Looking at previous cycles, volatility of this magnitude appears consistent with long-term trends,”
The New Reasons to be Optimistic
Optimism is again re-emerging although there are still lingering fears. The attitudinal upswing that occurred in the previous year was served by pro-cryptocurrency indicators composed of discussions about a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the Trump administration.
In addition, market confidence has been enhanced by speculation that the Federal Reserve can revert to rate decreases under the future leadership. Trading in 2026 indicates that retail interest has recovered and is being seen in the early trading that has already shown serious gains with an impressive increase in volume.
Risks and Valuation Concerns
Risks remain heightened. The market value of Bitcoin is significantly high compared to the value of Ethereum at around $376.01 billion capitalization, hence, there are doubts of undervaluation.
Unlike conventional businesses, Bitcoin does not have a clear competitive advantage, and its leadership is determined by the mood and its legal approval. Should the macroeconomic environment worsen or equity markets crashes as the S&P 500 most recently dipped down, investors might once again become alienated to the risks inherent to crypto.
What Comes Next?
Bitcoin has matured as an asset, with institutional investors becoming involved, primarily through US exchange-traded funds, and the massive price swings seen in previous cycles are now reduced to an extent.
New all-time highs might be created by positive policy wind, but declining risks remain. Therefore, even with no new catalysts, most analysts expect fair value to fall below 100,000, thus, highlighting the importance of diversification and appropriate risk management.