Can Nvidia Stock Maintain Dominance Amid Rising ASIC Competition?

NVIDIA is now facing a difficult situation with emerging threats to its business in China. More recent regulatory actions have increased concerns about the company’s ability to do business in one of its most essential data-center markets.

This has been assessed by Chinese authorities on the previous Nvidia takeover of Mellanox, and new conditions are given which could possibly influence the importation of subsequent chips. Some of these conditions are the limitations to entry to the market and the additional revenue-sharing requirements. To investors, the most important issue is not the penalties or corrective actions taken in the short run.

The general risk is in a long-term shrinkage of market share in China. Even a small change to access in the market might hinder the expansion in the data-center sector, which is the main source of profit for Nvidia.

Since China still constitutes a significant customer of high-technology artificial-intelligence equipment, a permanent limitation would cripple future revenues and profitability rates.  

The level of competition is increasing at a quicker rate than anticipated

Meanwhile, the market rivalry in the field of AI chips is also growing at an even higher rate. AMD is also enjoying great penetration with its MI series accelerators, which are directly competing with Nvidia in the same market. The recent report by AMD indicated that the company experienced strong growth in its data centres.

Sizable infrastructure contracts are also manifestations of the competition. AMD has also announced its partnership with the Tata Group to help it build AI data centres in India, thus making AMD directly compete with Nvidia in a high-growth market.

Also, the CEO of Arista Networks has pointed out a noticeable trend of some AI deployment to AMD platform.  

Earnings quality is now in the spotlight

Outside market-related risks, investors are examining the quality of Nvidia with increased care. The cash flow has never been in agreement with reported profits over the last few quarters. Customer receivables have increased drastically, which is a sign of a higher percentage of funds being retained in forms other than being converted into liquid cash.

NVIDIA remains highly profitable, with strong revenue and margin growth. However, increasing regulatory pressure, intensified competition, and weakening cash conversion could leave the company’s equity more vulnerable if market conditions deteriorate in 2026.