The launch of the Tesla Optimus promises a massive change in the field of humanoid robots. According to Barclays analysts, the market for humanoid robots is currently valued at $2-3 billion, but it is expected to grow to $40 billion by 2035 and $200 billion once AI-powered robots enter the labor market. Morgan Stanley predicts a market value of more than $5 trillion by 2050.
Early Edge
Optimus Gen-3 is shown to have dexterity akin to humans, video-based education, and 8 -10 hour shifts, and has already been experimented with on factory work, like battery handling.
In the Q4 2025 earnings call, when the company announced it was repurposing its production lines of the Model S / X in Fremont to assemble a 1 million unit Optimus, Elon Musk references Optimus as the top priority of Tesla by stating that, we are making huge investments in the expectation of a transformative future.
Spending Surge
Long-term investments are predicted to rise to over $20 billion in 2026, to be distributed in AI chip development, 6 new facilities, and other Optimus manufacturing capacity, nearly doubling its level of previous spending.
The stock is trading at about $411.40 with a high price to earnings ratio at 382.73 times which symbolizes that the stock is well valued despite loss in revenue in electric vehicles.
Outlook
The combination of artificial intelligence and automotive platform of Tesla alongside strategic partnership with xAI can put the company in the role of leadership. However, there is still a competitive pressure and performance risk.
In case Optimus targets to attract prices between $20000 and $30000, and reaches significant scale, it will help Tesla to enter the mass adoption of electric vehicles that will potentially alter the labor market by 2030.
In this regard, investors are keeping a close eye on end-2026 volumes of production since prosperity on this area will surpass the effect of the sales of electric vehicles.