Palantir Stock Defies Michael Burry’s 65% Crash Prediction

The expected downward trend of the Palantir Technology shares as predicted by Michael Burry does not align with the market dynamic trends.  

Famous for his prescient opinions of the 2008 financial crisis, Michael Burry now estimates that the Palantir Technologies stock will suffer a 65% drop, reaching $46 per share.

Burry says:

“I believe Palantir’s recent winning streak will not endure”

He has provided much commentary, amounting to about 10,000 words, that singles out the cumulative past losses, stand-alone repurchases, and equity-based incentive plans as possible red flags to the artificial-intelligence company. Still, recent magnificent returns indicate that Burry might not consider the current favorable trend in analysis.  

Previous Misfortunes forfeit speedily

Palantir suffered a prolonged spell of no profits which can be explained, in large part, by huge investments in research and development and haphazard government contracts, which initially drew the attention of Burry.

These challenges have now been long gone. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the year-over-year increase in revenue rose to 70% to hit its highest point of one point four one billion dollars and it marked the tenth consecutive quarter revenue growth. 

The U.S. commercial sales doubled to 137 % to reach a record of $507 million and a level close to the $570 million made through its AI Platform (AIP).  

Quantitative Performance Blows Conventional Concerns

The record high total contract value obtained was 4.26 bn, which is an increase of 138 %t and the performance obligations increased by 143 % to 4.21 bn. The rule-of-40 result of the firm rose to 127 % which is an indicator of excellent SaaS well-being. 

Palantir generated $777 million in operating cash flow with a 55 % margin, having an adjusted earnings-per-share/share-of 0.25 and a cash equivalent of $7.2 billion, or an increase of 79%.

Market Assessment Facing Dilution of Viewpoints

The stock sells at 214 times earnings at a price of $135.4 per share on February 21, 2026 notwithstanding a fall will lead to a valuation premium that has decreased. Analysts are bullish: Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has 18 analyst ratings, with the consensus being Buy. 

28% of analysts recommend a strong buy, 17% recommend buy, 50% suggest holding, 6% recommend selling, and 0% predict a strong sell. Gil Luria, an investor at the prominent investment firm D.A. Davidson, refuted Burry by saying that there is no additional evidence and argument enough to alter the target of the firm of $180.  

Future Projections and Strategy

Offerings by Palantir show future revenue of 2026 in the amount of $7.19 billion, which is 61 % higher. It has the potential of tripling earnings with the growth of the AIP. 

Burry seems to focus on historical issues, but the competitive advantage appreciated by the AI of Palantir puts the company in a huge growth potential in long term upyielding returns to the investors who hold on to their positions amidst market variations.