SpaceX Stock Hit an All-Time Low a Day After Joining the Nasdaq-100

Market Brief

Key Takeaways

5 Points30s Read

1. 01The fall–SPCX is down about a third from its $225.64 first-week peak, hitting an all-time low of $145.20 on July 8 before Thursday’s 2.6% bounce to $152.16.
2. 02The failed test–Roughly $4 billion of forced Nasdaq-100 index buying arrived July 7 — and the stock fell 6.8% through it to new lows, confirming the supply overhang.
3. 03The supply–A $60 billion all-stock Cursor acquisition, a ~$20 billion debut bond tied to the xAI bridge loan, and lockups that could expand the float ~900% by early September.
4. 04The float math–The IPO sold about 4% of the company. Scarcity built the $225 print; the unlock calendar (20% post-earnings, 7% on Aug 21 and Sep 10) unwinds it.
5. 05The spread–Street consensus: Buy, $210 target. Morningstar fair value: $62. No trillion-dollar company divides Wall Street this widely.

The one guaranteed buyer SpaceX stock will ever have showed up on schedule — and the stock fell straight through it. Roughly $4 billion of forced index-fund buying arrived when SPCX entered the Nasdaq-100 at Tuesday’s open, July 7, just fifteen trading days after its IPO under the exchange’s fast-entry rules. SPCX dropped 6.8% that day, then printed its all-time low of $145.20 on Wednesday. Thursday, July 9 brought the first real bounce since: a 2.6% gain to $152.16. The stock remains about a third below the $225.64 peak it set in its first week — a round trip that took less than a month.

Three weeks, a trillion dollars of round trip

The sequence matters more than any single number. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 on June 12 — 555.6 million shares, a $75 billion all-primary raise at roughly $1.75 trillion — opened at $150, and ran 50% in three days. At $225.64 it was briefly the fourth-most-valuable public company, ahead of Amazon and Microsoft.

Then the supply started arriving. On June 17, five days after listing, SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor, the AI coding startup — roughly 3.4% dilution before the first earnings report. Morningstar trimmed its fair value estimate to $62; Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan took the other side with a $250 call. The stock gave back 20% in two sessions, erasing about $620 billion in market value. June 22 was the worst day yet — down 16.4% — and on June 23 it broke below its $150 debut price amid a broader tech selloff. Alongside all of it: an inaugural bond offering of roughly $20 billion, per Bloomberg reporting, to repay the bridge loan from February’s xAI acquisition.

The index bid was the test — and it failed

TECHi’s pre-IPO analysis flagged exactly this mechanism: Nasdaq’s fast-entry rules make a large new listing index-eligible after fifteen trading days, creating passive demand that is price-insensitive — and creating the risk that investors confuse forced demand with investment quality. That test has now run. On July 6, the day index funds had to buy ahead of inclusion, SPCX traded 188.8 million shares — about three times its early-July volume, per Polygon end-of-day data — and still closed down. The next day, with the inclusion effective, it fell 6.8% to $149.47. The day after that, $145.20.

When the largest scheduled buy order in a stock’s life gets absorbed and the price makes new lows anyway, the message is about supply, not sentiment. Sellers — IPO allocants sitting on gains, deal arbitrageurs, early skeptics — are bigger than the bid.

The supply wall is still ahead

What has hit the tape so far is the small wave. According to 22V Research strategist Jeff Jacobson, SpaceX’s lockup structure could allow insiders to sell up to 44% of the company’s shares by early September, expanding the tradable float by roughly 900%. The schedule stacks: 20% of early-release shares unlock after the first earnings report in late July or early August, a further 10% if the stock trades 30% above the IPO price, and 7% tranches arrive on August 21 and September 10.

The float math explains both halves of the chart. The IPO sold about 4% of a company with 13.17 billion shares outstanding — manufactured scarcity that let retail and index demand chase a $225 print. The same scarcity now runs in reverse: $60 billion of new Cursor shares, $20 billion of new debt to service, and a lockup calendar that more than doubles then quintuples the float. The $225 high was what SPCX cost when almost nobody could sell. The next two months discover what it costs when almost everybody can.

What $152 buys

Underneath the mechanics sits a real, unprofitable, fast-growing company. Trailing revenue stands at $19.3 billion, up 33%, against a $9.36 billion trailing net loss — a $2.0 trillion valuation near 100 times revenue, with a forward earnings multiple near 290. The S-1 figures TECHi broke down before the debut show the split personality: Starlink connectivity generated $11.4 billion in revenue with $4.4 billion in operating income, while the AI segment produced $3.2 billion in revenue against a $6.4 billion operating loss. Public investors own a profitable satellite ISP fused to one of the largest cash-burning AI build-outs on Earth.

Wall Street’s disagreement about what that is worth has no precedent among trillion-dollar names: the 30-analyst consensus says Buy with a $210.28 target, while Morningstar’s fair value sits at $62 — the high mark values the company at nearly three and a half times the low one. SPCX is also now a live read-through for the rest of the AI IPO class — Anthropic and OpenAI have filed, and their bankers are watching this float experiment in real time.

What to watch

• The first earnings report, expected in late July or early August — it is both the first public look at post-IPO numbers and the trigger for the 20% lockup release that follows it.
• August 21 and September 10, the scheduled 7% unlock dates. Price action into those dates shows whether the market pre-sells supply or absorbs it.
• Whether $145.20 holds. Thursday’s 2.6% bounce was the first close that found voluntary buyers below $150; a break of the low with the float expanding would say the discovery process isn’t done.
• The bond pricing. What coupon debt markets demand from a company burning $9 billion a year is a valuation opinion with money behind it — and Starship’s regulatory calendar still sits underneath the operating story.

The IPO sold 4% of SpaceX to people who wanted it at any price. The next two months sell the rest to whoever remains. Scarcity set the top. Supply is looking for the bottom — and Thursday’s $152.16 is the first price in a week that found buyers who didn’t have to show up.