AMD vs Palantir stock: same growth hurdle, 3x valuation gap

Palantir reports third-quarter results after the U.S. close on Monday, November 2; AMD follows after the close on Tuesday, November 3. Their own guidance points to surprisingly similar revenue growth from the second quarter: 11.70% for Palantir and 12.69% for AMD. The gap is less than one percentage point. The price investors are paying for those sales is nowhere near as close.

Using Friday’s closing prices, the companies’ reported share counts and June-quarter balance sheets, TECHi calculates roughly 55.9 times annualized second-quarter revenue for Palantir versus 17.6 times for AMD on a cash-adjusted enterprise-value basis. That is a deliberately simple, same-period comparison, not a forward multiple or a stock-price target. It also corrects a market-data trap: a quote feed’s Palantir capitalization omitted its other share classes. The useful question before two adjacent earnings events is which company can produce the evidence needed to justify its own valuation?

Article Brief

Key Takeaways

4 Points24s Read

• 01The calendar–Palantir reports November 2 after the U.S. close; AMD follows November 3.
• 02The growth gap–Q3 guidance midpoints imply 11.70% and 12.69% sequential revenue growth, only 0.99 percentage point apart.
• 03The valuation gap–Using filing-based all-class share counts, cash-adjusted enterprise value is about 55.9x Palantir annualized Q2 sales versus 17.6x AMD at October 30 prices.
• 04The proof–Palantir must show commercial revenue conversion; AMD must clarify CPU versus accelerator mix and protect margin.

The shared growth hurdle is real, but it proves different things

AMD’s August 4 financial release reported $11.536 billion of second-quarter revenue and guided to approximately $13.0 billion in the third quarter, plus or minus $300 million. The midpoint implies (13.000 - 11.536) / 11.536 = 12.69% sequential growth. Management itself rounded that to about 13%. The guidance range means a result at $12.7 billion would still be within the company’s stated outlook, while $13.3 billion would mark the upper end.

Palantir’s August 3 earnings exhibit filed with the SEC reported $1.935464 billion of second-quarter revenue and guided to $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion for the third quarter. The $2.162 billion midpoint implies (2.162 - 1.935464) / 1.935464 = 11.70% sequential growth. Subtracting the two midpoint rates gives a 0.99-percentage-point difference. Both guidance figures were issued months ago; this is an earnings preview, not a new company disclosure.

Two earnings tests on one basis

Measure	AMD	Palantir
Q2 2026 revenue	$11.536B	$1.935464B
Q3 guidance midpoint	$13.000B	$2.162B
Implied sequential growth	12.69%	11.70%
October 30 equity value from filed share counts	$824.1B	$442.4B
Approximate EV / annualized Q2 sales	17.6x	55.9x
Q3 release	Nov. 3 after close	Nov. 2 after close

That near tie is useful precisely because the businesses are so different. A chip vendor books revenue when products and systems reach customers under its accounting rules; software contracts are recognized over their relevant terms. One percentage point of quarterly growth does not mean the two companies have equally durable economics. Nor does a company’s own guidance establish what analysts or the market expect. A merely in-range result can still disappoint a stock if investors had priced in more.

AMD’s test: which part of Data Center revenue is accelerating?

AMD’s second-quarter Data Center segment produced $6.718 billion, up 107% from a year earlier and about 58.2% of total company revenue. That sounds like a clean AI-accelerator number, but it is not one. AMD says the segment includes both EPYC server processors and Instinct graphics processors. The distinction matters: CPU share gains can lift Data Center sales even if the pace of GPU deployment falls short of an ambitious AI narrative.

For Tuesday’s report, the stronger AMD outcome would combine revenue above the $13.0 billion midpoint with a clear explanation of whether accelerator shipments, server CPUs, or both drove the increase. Investors should look for a repeatable mix, not just a larger total. A data-center advance accompanied by a weaker client or gaming segment could still support the AI case, but the mix would change how much of the result is likely to recur. Conversely, broad demand across product groups would reduce dependence on one AI customer program.

Profitability is the second test. AMD guided to approximately 56% non-GAAP gross margin for the third quarter, the same level it reported for the second. If revenue rises while the gross-margin measure slips, the explanation could involve product mix, pricing, packaging costs or other factors that the release must specify. A higher-margin result would be more persuasive than revenue growth alone because it would show the expanding business converting into gross profit at least as well as planned. The company’s GAAP and non-GAAP margins are different measures; neither should be silently substituted for the other.

AMD also brings a balance-sheet buffer. Its second-quarter release listed $13.111 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, against $3.226 billion of total debt. The net cash position gives it room to invest through product cycles, but it does not remove execution risk. Design wins, announced partnerships and promised rack-scale systems become valuable to shareholders only as shipments, margins and cash generation materialize. TECHi’s earlier AMD November earnings test examines the single-company setup; this comparison asks what that proof is worth beside Palantir’s.

AMD’s June-quarter Form 10-Q also complicates a simple valuation verdict. It reported two customer warrants, one for OpenAI and one for Meta, each covering up to 160 million AMD shares at $0.01 if specified purchase, stock-price and other conditions are met. None had vested at June 27. Those are contingent potential shares, not current dilution; investors should follow vesting and per-share economics as deployment milestones arrive. The filing also listed $30.3 billion of future unconditional commitments at that date, including $17.4 billion for the remainder of 2026. The cash balance should be read alongside those obligations, not in isolation.

Palantir’s test: revenue quality after the contract headlines

Palantir’s second-quarter report showed U.S. commercial revenue of $764 million, up 149% year over year and 28% from the preceding quarter. It also reported $2.132 billion of U.S. commercial total contract value and $6.238 billion of U.S. commercial remaining deal value. Those latter two figures describe signed or remaining business under Palantir’s definitions; they are not revenue that has already been recognized, and they do not specify when every dollar will appear in sales.

The Monday report can strengthen the case if revenue exceeds the narrow $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion guidance range and U.S. commercial growth remains broad rather than hinging on a few unusually large agreements. Investors should compare recognized revenue, customer expansion and the conversion of deal value into sales. If management points primarily to bigger deal totals while revenue growth or the commercial mix slows, the evidence for a premium software multiple becomes weaker even though the contract announcements may sound impressive.

Palantir guided third-quarter adjusted operating income to $1.292 billion to $1.296 billion. At the midpoints of revenue and adjusted income guidance, the implied adjusted operating margin is roughly 59.9%. That is a useful test against the second quarter’s 62% adjusted operating margin, but it is not comparable with AMD’s 56% non-GAAP gross-margin guidance: operating margin deducts more expenses, and the businesses account for costs differently. A margin decline may be acceptable if investment produces durable future contracts; investors need management’s explanation and the actual GAAP figures before treating it as success.

Palantir reported $265.2 million of second-quarter stock-based compensation, up from $160.0 million a year earlier, according to the same SEC exhibit. Diluted weighted-average shares were about 2.569 billion versus 2.563 billion a year earlier. The latter change was small in percentage terms, but compensation remains a real cost of retaining employees and a reason to read per-share results alongside adjusted profit. Palantir’s earlier revenue audit raised a related issue: the company does not report a separate line for its AI platform revenue, so outside investors cannot equate all growth with one product.

The valuation gap, with its limits shown

At the October 30 U.S. market close, FMP’s Nasdaq quote snapshot showed AMD at $504.80 and Palantir at $184.11. Those are Friday’s closing observations, not live Monday prices. Market values can change when trading resumes, and the figures in this calculation should not be carried forward as current quotes. Readers can check the refreshed AMD quote and Palantir quote separately.

For a same-period comparison, annualize each company’s second-quarter revenue by multiplying it by four. That yields $46.144 billion for AMD and $7.742 billion for Palantir. It is a run rate, not either company’s full-year forecast. AMD’s Form 10-Q reports 1,632,475,042 common shares outstanding as of July 29. Multiplying that share count by the October 30 close yields an approximate $824.1 billion equity value. Subtracting the $13.111 billion June cash and short-term-investment figure and adding $3.226 billion of reported debt produces an approximate $814.2 billion enterprise value. Dividing by the revenue run rate yields 17.6 times.

Palantir’s Form 10-Q reports 2,300,713,329 Class A shares, 101,340,151 Class B shares and 1,005,000 Class F shares outstanding as of July 27. Their 2,403,058,480-share sum multiplied by $184.11 yields about $442.4 billion of equity value. FMP’s market-cap field showed only about $423.6 billion, close to a calculation using Class A shares alone. Using that feed field would understate the equity denominator, so TECHi used the filing’s all-class count instead. Palantir listed $2.030 billion in cash and $7.379 billion in marketable securities at June 30, for about $9.409 billion combined, and reported no outstanding debt under its credit facility. Subtracting those liquid assets produces an approximate $433.0 billion enterprise value, or 55.9 times annualized second-quarter revenue. The ratio of the two multiples is about 3.17.

This simplified treatment excludes operating lease liabilities and differences in restricted cash, and it pairs July share counts and June balance sheets with October closing prices. Any subsequent share issuance or balance-sheet change would alter the multiples. Palantir’s multi-class shares also have different voting rights, so economic share count and voting control should not be conflated. This is a transparent comparison, not a precise intrinsic-value estimate.

The gap does not by itself make AMD the better stock. Palantir’s software margins, commercial growth and low capital requirements could support a premium if they persist. AMD’s hardware cycles, inventory needs, competition and capital spending can make a lower sales multiple entirely rational. However, the size of the gap raises the burden of proof: Palantir must show that exceptional growth and profit conversion are durable enough to defend a multiple roughly three times AMD’s matched-period figure. AMD must show its less expensive sales base is increasingly tied to high-value AI deployments rather than temporary mix.

Forecast: what would change the comparison this week?

Base case: Both companies land near their own revenue guidance midpoints, and neither release gives a major change in forward demand. That would confirm the roughly 12% sequential growth setup without settling the valuation question. In this case, AMD has the easier multiple to defend on this one measure, while Palantir retains the stronger reported recent U.S. commercial growth and adjusted software profitability. Neither observation is a forecast of next week’s share price.

AMD upside case: Revenue exceeds $13.3 billion, Data Center growth is supported by a clearer accelerator contribution, and non-GAAP gross margin meets or exceeds 56% without a troubling cost explanation. That combination would give investors a reason to revise the quality of AMD’s expected AI revenue upward. A revenue beat driven mainly by one non-AI segment would be less convincing for this particular thesis.

Palantir upside case: Revenue beats the $2.164 billion top of guidance, U.S. commercial momentum remains broad, and actual GAAP and adjusted results show that the business can scale without relying on deal-value headlines. Even then, investors need to test how much of that upside was already priced into the stock. A strong print and a falling share price can coexist if expectations were higher than the disclosed guide.

Downside case for either: A shortfall against guidance, weaker forward language or a deteriorating revenue-to-profit conversion would matter more than a polished AI narrative. For Palantir, slower commercial conversion or heavier compensation costs would pressure the premium. For AMD, weaker Data Center mix or gross margin would challenge the case that AI shipments are improving the economics of the business.

Palantir’s earnings notice schedules its release after Monday’s close and a 5 p.m. Eastern webcast. AMD’s notice schedules its release after Tuesday’s close and a 5 p.m. Eastern call. The answer will come from the reported mix, margins and new guidance, not from choosing the more exciting AI label beforehand. This preview should be revisited against both actual releases when they arrive.