Will Nvidia Shares Continue to Rise or Face Risks?

In the last year, Nvidia has made the transition from being the market favorite to a bruised chipmaker to again back at being the AI hero, where it rode the waves of Wall Street bullishness and tried dodging the curveballs of geopolitics. The firm is both the darling of AI innovation and the punching bag of US-China trade tensions. But as the year 2025 unfolds, one wonders whether Nvidia can continue to drive forward, or will tariffs, competitors, and strained valuations bring its rally to an end?

Nvidia’s stock has risen almost 21% in the last three months and over 43% in the last six months, where it surpassed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes. This is a rebound after a rough beginning to 2025, when it reported a huge $5.5 billion H20 chip export restriction charge to China, which caused a severe sell-off. However, Nvidia has proven to be resilient.

Its strategic maneuvers, such as spending heavily to bolster U.S AI infrastructure and creating new chip designs specific to China, have appeased investors that the company is still focused on long-term growth regardless of the trade headwinds. But some analysts view the rally in the stock as the start of a new growth phase, while others warn that U.S-China relations and regulatory hurdles will spoil the rally.

Nvidia’s Growth Drivers

In spite of volatility, Nvidia’s profitability and market leadership remains solid. The firm increased GPU prices by 10–15% in order to compensate its tariff inflicted cost hikes, which reflects the pricing strength that very few competitors can equal. Its cash reserve of $37.6 billion and collaboration with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) guarantee supply chain stability in the uncertain global conditions.

Its major growth drivers include its Data Center Supremacy, where Nvidia’s Q2 revenue reached an all-time high of $46.7 billion, with $41.1 billion from its data center business, increasing 56% year over year. Nvidia’s other growth catalyst is its Saudi Arab agreement. On Trump’s Riyadh trip, Nvidia made a milestone sale of 18,000 Blackwell GB300 chips to Humain, which solidified its place in international AI infrastructure.

Nvidia’s automotive growth is another growth driver, where this division doubled year over year to $570 million. It was driven by collaborations with Toyota and Aurora Innovation in autonomous automobiles. In addition, Nvidia can capitalize on the 37% CAGR AI market growth expected by 2030, which supports its estimate of $170 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, which is a significant increase from $130.5 billion in 2025.

Probable Risks

The risks facing Nvidia include export restrictions and retaliatory tariffs being put forth by China, which would thus jeopardize demand/supply chains, also analysts are actually warning about a possible $9 billion revenue loss in H20 chip restrictions only. Certainly, competition is increasing, where Huawei’s Ascend processors along with some young AI companies like DeepSeek are all posing credible threats.

Nvidia’s operating costs rose 39% to $3.7 billion as R&D costs soared. While this supports long-term innovation, it tightens margins in the short term. Meanwhile, the valuation is still strained. A lot of analysts perceive upside, but cynics point out that Nvidia’s rich multiples do not leave much room for disappointment if growth expectations moderate.

Nvidia Stock Forecast for 2025

After falling to a 52-week low of $86.62 in April, Nvidia has mounted an impressive turnaround, reaching an all-time peak of $184.48 in the last month. The turnaround has been driven by robust earnings, optimistic projections, and easing tensions between the U.S and China. Analyst sentiment is also strongly optimistic, where out of 63 analysts, 58 have a Buy rating, and 10 give a Strong Buy rating.

The average 12-month price target of $209.19 implies 19% gains from current levels. 24/7 Wall St.’s more conservative estimate puts Nvidia price target at $194.30 by the end of 2025, which is an 11% return that accounts for tariff risks, Blackwell supply tensions, and competitive pressures.

Nvidia is both the safest and the riskiest stock on Wall Street. It is safe because its AI moat is deep, and it is risky because its valuations posit perfection. If the AI hype goes truly forward, Nvidia could still outperform any bullish analyst target and reward long-term believers brilliantly. However, if tariffs escalate or new competitors really step forward, then this astonishing rise could face its first significant cool down. Nvidia is still the ultimate AI chip leader, with deep pockets, worldwide alliances, and unparalleled data center expansion.

For growth investors, Nvidia is still a buy, but for others who are unable to deal with risks, they should be cautious. The stock’s valuation does not provide much margin for error in an unstable geopolitical climate. For now, Nvidia is not so much a gamble but investors would have to cope with occasional sprints and unexpected stumbles along the road.