Should You Buy Tesla Stock Ahead of Q3 Delivery Report or Wait for Clarity?

Tesla’s each quarter is like a season finale, deliveries are in line, will Elon Musk say something on Twitter that sets the stock spinning, or will investors continue to bet on the vision of robotaxis and humanoid robots like they’re the next Marvel franchise? Tesla’s been on a hot streak, with shares rising 65% over the last year and trading near record levels. 

The buzz is generated by the company’s aggressive product roadmap, including its highly flaunted Cybercab robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot. CEO Elon Musk has certainly made grand promises that these technologies could one day propel Tesla into being the world’s most valuable company. 

But here’s the thing, 74% of Tesla’s revenue still comes from selling EVs, and sales within that category are quite slowing down. With October 2 looming rapidly, which is the day Tesla is set to report its Q3 delivery numbers, the investors have a tough choice to make, which is to buy now and ride the hype, or wait on the sidelines until more clarity arrives.

EV Deliveries Continue to Decline

Tesla sold 720,803 vehicles in the first half of 2025, which is a 13% decrease from the same period a year ago. This decline pulled revenue down 14% and earnings down a whopping 31%. The issue isn’t the demand for electric vehicles generally, in fact Europe’s EV market increased 30% in August, but the issue is specifically for the demand of Tesla cars. European Tesla sales fell 36% year-over-year in August, as low-priced competitors took market share.

For Tesla the number one culprit is its competition. Chinese BYD has been on flame, tripling sales in Europe in August by destabilizing Tesla with lower-priced models. Wall Street consensus now projects that Tesla delivered about 445,000 cars in Q3, which is down 3.9% from last year. 

Although that’s a smaller decline from previous quarters, it may all be because of American consumers hastening to purchase before the expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit on 1^st October. That suggests that Q4 might be even weaker.

Promising New Products

Tesla bulls claim that the Cybercab and Optimus will ultimately take the company to extraordinary heights. Musk sees Optimus potentially bringing in $10 trillion of revenue over the long term, even going so far as to say humanoid robots may outnumber humans by 2040. But these projects remain a number of years from becoming significant to Tesla’s investments.

The Cybercab will not appear on roads without regulatory approval for autonomous full self-driving (FSD), and FSD now necessitates the presence of a human safety driver. This puts Tesla behind Alphabet’s Waymo, which is already conducting 250,000 paid autonomous rides per week in five U.S cities. 

However, Optimus will supposedly start mass production next year, though Musk indicates that it may take at least five years to scale up to 1 million units per year. These bets are thrilling but do not address Tesla’s current EV delivery and profitability problems.

Valuations

Even if one is a believer in Tesla’s long-term prospects, its valuation is hard to brush off. The stock carries a P/E ratio of 244, more than 7 times of the Nasdaq-100’s average (32.6) and a higher multiple than any of the so-called Magnificent Seven. 

High multiples typically require high earnings growth, but Tesla’s profits are contracting, not expanding. This disconnect exposes the stock to severe corrections, particularly if delivery numbers are a disappointment again or if there are delays in commercializing Cybercab and Optimus.

Bottom Line

Tesla is still an innovative leader with an unparalleled brand in EVs and ambitious plans in AI-driven robotics. Yet, the declining EV sales, increased competition, and extreme valuation makes it a risky purchase going into the October 2 delivery report. 

If one is bullish on Tesla’s long-term vision, waiting until after the delivery numbers and possible pullback will provide a much better entry point. For now, standing on the sidelines and admiring the ambitious Tesla may be a safer option than getting tricked at peak prices.

Tesla is still one of the most thrilling and controversial stocks in the market. It’s either a generational bet to invest in the firm that is transforming transport, robotics, and AI, or a pricey gamble that might punish shareholders if expectations are disappointed. With EV sales decelerating, new products are years from making a material impact on revenue, being cautious appears to be the better strategy. 

Should Tesla produce an upside surprise on October 2, those investors who remained on the sidelines will experience some sorrow. But if the earnings fall short, those who waited will be thankful that they didn’t invest impulsively. At times, the best investment decision isn’t following the hype, rather it’s waiting on the good entry point.