Shares of QuantumScape have seen sharp swings in 2025, reflecting optimism around recent milestones as well as concerns about the cost and time required to scale production. With partnerships such as its licensing deal with Volkswagen’s battery unit PowerCo and new supply collaborations, the company is working to show it can move from the lab to commercial readiness.
Over the next 12 months, the stock’s direction will likely hinge on whether QuantumScape can prove its technology is scalable and demonstrate progress toward meaningful revenue generation.
Technology progress
QuantumScape has made several important advances in its solid-state battery technology during 2025. One key recent development is that its Cobra separator process has entered baseline production.
The Cobra process is an upgraded ceramic separator manufacturing method that improves throughput dramatically, with reported heat-treatment speed roughly 25 times faster than the prior “Raptor” process, while also requiring much less physical space per production line.
Another milestone came in collaboration with PowerCo, Volkswagen’s battery unit. The companies expanded their licensing deal, under which PowerCo will provide up to US$131 million in new payments over two years tied to technical and scale-up milestones. This expanded agreement involves increasing prototype cell deliveries and advancing a QSE-5 pilot line in San Jose.
QuantumScape also performed a live vehicle demonstration at IAA Mobility in Munich. A Ducati V21L motorcycle, fitted with QS’s QSE-5 cells produced using the Cobra process, ran on-stage to show the technology in action. The demo included specifications such as ~844 Wh/L energy density, fast charging from 10% to 80% in about 12 minutes, and 10C continuous discharge capability.
Despite these gains there remain technical uncertainties. Long-term cycle life at large scale is still under proof. Yield (that is, the percentage of cells that meet specification) and integration of cells into battery packs with thermal, mechanical, and safety constraints pose risks.
Scaling from prototype or pilot scale to mass manufacturing tends to present cost, quality, and reliability challenges that must be cleared before widespread commercial rollout.
Financial health & near-term economics
QuantumScape’s latest financial report shows that the company continues to operate at a significant deficit while preserving a substantial cash buffer. In Q2 2025, its GAAP net loss was $114.7 million, while operating expenses totaled $123.6 million.
Adjusted EBITDA loss for the quarter was $63.0 million. The company allocated $8.3 million in capital expenditures in that period, largely toward facilities and equipment for its next-generation sample production.
At quarter’s end, QuantumScape held $797.5 million in liquidity (cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities), and it has extended its projected cash runway into 2029. The expansion of the PowerCo licensing deal, which offers up to $131 million in milestone payments over two years, is a key part of that extension.
Looking ahead, the company has guided toward a full-year capital expenditure range of $45 million to $65 million, and expects a 2025 adjusted EBITDA loss between $250 million and $270 million.
On the revenue side, QuantumScape remains largely pre-commercial. Analysts project minimal revenue in 2025, with only a few million dollars possible in 2026. Some estimates foresee $4.5 million in 2026, with losses deepening in intervening years.
Because of its cash burn, projected losses, and minimal revenue, the company’s financials are under close scrutiny. Successfully hitting licensing milestones will be crucial to avoid dilution or heavy debt over the next 12 months.
Market, partnerships, and commercialization pathway
QuantumScape is pursuing a strategy built around partnerships and stepwise commercialization of its solid-state battery platform. One key collaboration is with Volkswagen’s PowerCo.
Under an expanded licensing agreement, PowerCo will pay up to US$131 million over two years to assist in scaling QuantumScape’s QSE-5 pilot production line in San Jose, including earlier prototype cell deliveries and automation efforts.
Another recent partnership involves Corning Incorporated. QuantumScape and Corning announced an agreement to co-develop ceramic separator manufacturing capabilities intended for high-volume solid-state battery production. The aim is to build a more robust supply chain for a component seen as critical for performance and safety.
These collaborations seek to address two of the biggest challenges on the path to full commercialization: scaling up production while maintaining quality and reducing cost. QuantumScape’s separator process called “Cobra” has entered baseline production.
The Cobra process is reportedly about 25 times faster in its heat treatment stage than its predecessor “Raptor” process, and it needs less physical space for installation.
In terms of market opportunity, demand for electric vehicle batteries continues to grow rapidly. Automakers are increasingly investing in next-generation battery technologies to meet stricter emissions standards and consumer demand for longer range.
For QuantumScape, success depends on whether pilot production lines like QSE-5 and associated materials like ceramic separators can scale reliably. Execution delays or supplier constraints could slow progress.
Overall, QuantumScape’s commercialization pathway appears structured, with defined milestones via its PowerCo and Corning partnerships. Achievement of those steps, combined with cost control and clear supply-chain readiness, will be central to determining stock performance over the next year.
One-year outlook, price scenarios & key risks
Over the next 12 months, QuantumScape’s stock trajectory will depend heavily on execution. According to MarketBeat, the average one-year price target from analysts is $5.88, with forecasts ranging from $2.50 to $11.00.
Bull case: If QuantumScape successfully scales the Cobra process, delivers working cells via its pilot line, and meets licensing milestones with PowerCo, the stock could recover toward the upper analyst estimates near $10-$11. Positive early vehicle integrations or customer commitments would strengthen that scenario.
Base case: Execution proceeds more slowly. The stock might drift toward $5-$7, reflecting continued losses, modest sample revenues, and cautious investor sentiment.
Bear case: Delays or cost overruns force extra capital raises or heavy dilution. In the worst outcome, share price could fall toward the lower end of forecasts, near $2.50.
Key risks during this period include rising cash burn without matching licensing receipts, inability to hit yield or cycle-life targets at scale, competition from improved lithium-ion or rival solid-state developers, and possible dilution if further financing is needed.
Careful monitoring of quarterly updates, cell validation results, and funding announcements will be crucial for assessing which scenario is unfolding.
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