What Could the Next Five Years Hold for Investors?

Amazon stands today as one of the most closely watched stocks in both technology and retail sectors. In its first quarter of 2025, the company reported net sales of $155.7 billion, up 9 percent year over year, and net income of $17.1 billion (or $1.59 per diluted share). Its cloud division, Amazon Web Services (AWS), saw revenue growth of 17 percent in the same quarter to $29.3 billion.

Despite these solid results, Amazon’s stock performance has been uneven. Over the past five years, shares have risen by about 42%, a return that trails broader market indexes. 

More recent analyst consensus suggests a twelve-month target of around $264.54, reflecting modest upside from current levels. Amazon also plans to invest heavily in its operations, with capital expenditures in 2025 projected to exceed $100 billion, largely to support AI and infrastructure expansion.

TECHi highlights that Amazon could double over five years if AWS and profit growth rekindle. This backdrop sets the stage for a deeper look into where Amazon stock might head over the next five years.

Historical Track Record & What Precedent Suggests

Over the past decade Amazon has delivered strong returns, though with periods of volatility. From 2015 to 2024, the stock saw several years of double-digit growth. For example, Amazon rose more than 80 percent in 2023, followed by a roughly 44% gain in 2024. 

In contrast, in 2022 the stock dropped about 49–50 percent as investor concerns over inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing growth in its retail division weighed heavily.

Looking further back, if an investor had bought Amazon shares at its initial public offering in 1997, the investment would have grown by roughly 2,131 times by mid-2025, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of approximately 31.5%. 

These historical figures show that while Amazon has achieved very large long-term gains, in shorter windows its performance can swing widely. Past five-year growth rates have been more muted in some cases, especially when macroeconomic headwinds or competitive pressures intensified. This precedent implies strong upside is possible but not assured over any given five-year span.

Key Growth Drivers

1. Strong Cloud Growth via AWS

Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains a core engine of growth. Analysts expect its revenue growth to accelerate above 20% by 2026 due to increasing demand for cloud services and generative AI workloads.

A major initiative called Project Rainier, which builds large compute capacity in partnership with Anthropic, is expected to contribute significantly to AWS growth.

2. Rapid Expansion of the Advertising Business

Amazon’s advertising arm is growing much faster than its other segments. In Q2 2025, advertising revenue reached $15.7 billion, up 22 percent year-over-year. In 2024, total ad revenue was $56.2 billion, an 18 percent increase from 2023.

That growth comes from the use of streaming ad formats (Prime Video, connected TV), better ad targeting using shopping data, and expanding retail media tools.

3. International Retail and Logistics Expansion

Amazon is growing faster outside the United States. In Q2 2025, its international segment posted 16% growth (year over year), higher than the 11 percent growth in North America.

To support this, the company is investing heavily in logistics, automation, and localized infrastructure in Europe and other high-growth regions. These improvements in supply chain and delivery speed help reduce costs and improve customer satisfaction. 

4. Investments in AI, Infrastructure, and Specialized Partnerships

Amazon is increasing capital expenditures significantly to support its infrastructure for AI. Such investments include data centers, specialized hardware (e.g. chips), and partnerships like that with Anthropic. These investments support both AWS growth and improvements in advertising targeting and efficiency.

5. Margin Improvement and Operating Leverage

As higher-margin businesses (AWS and Advertising) grow faster than low-margin retail, Amazon has an opportunity to improve overall operating margins. There is also evidence of efficiency gains in delivery, logistics, and fulfillment. Automation and robotics are being deployed in fulfillment centers, and international operations have shown margin improvements.

These drivers suggest that Amazon has several levers to pull for future growth. Each carries risks, but together they form a plausible roadmap for stronger revenue, profit, and stock performance over the next five years.

Risks & Uncertainties

Amazon faces several risks that could slow its growth over the next five years. One major concern is margin pressure in its cloud division, AWS. Even though AWS revenue grew 17 percent year-over-year in Q2 2025, operating margins dropped from 39.5 percent in Q1 to about 32.9 percent in Q2. This decline is partly due to rising costs for capital investments in AI infrastructure and higher depreciation. 

Regulatory risk is another serious challenge. In the UK, for example, the Competition and Markets Authority has raised concerns about whether services from AWS and Microsoft Azure should be granted “strategic market status,” which could subject them to additional restrictions under new rules. 

Also in the U.S., antitrust lawsuits are examining whether Amazon uses restrictive practices toward third-party sellers and whether it has unfair competitive advantages.

Macro-economic uncertainty weighs on Amazon’s operations. Inflation, rising interest rates, and trade policy (including tariffs on imports from China) could raise costs and reduce consumer demand. Amazon’s global exposure makes it vulnerable to changes in foreign exchange and disruptions in its supply chain. 

Another concern is competition. AWS competes with Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and others. In e-commerce and advertising, rivals like Walmart, Temu, and TikTok Shop are challenging Amazon’s market share. 

These risks do not guarantee poor outcomes, but they introduce enough uncertainty that investors should watch Amazon’s cost structure, regulatory developments, and competitive dynamics closely.

Scenario Forecasts and Price Outlook

Three clear scenarios are plausible for Amazon over the next five years, depending on execution, macro conditions, and regulatory outcomes.

Bull case. Amazon sustains strong AWS expansion, advertising continues to grow at high margins, and retail efficiency improves, producing faster earnings growth. Under that path some forecasters see substantial upside, with multi-year estimates implying share prices well above current levels. For example, a long-range projection from 24/7 Wall St. places a bull outcome near $431 by 2030.

Base case. AWS growth slows to mid-teens annually while advertising and international retail deliver steady gains. In this scenario the consensus near-term analyst view points to modest upside from current levels, with a twelve-month average target around $266.26, implying single-digit to low-double-digit annual returns from present prices.

Bear case. AWS margins compress further, regulatory actions constrain certain business practices, and consumer spending weakens. Under stress, models show substantial downside as multiple compression and weaker earnings combine. Some bear forecasts put long-term outcomes well below current market prices.

Short term price action will likely track quarterly AWS performance, advertising revenue trends, and regulatory headlines. Over a five-year horizon the most important drivers will be AWS margins, ad monetization, and how well capital spending translates into profitable revenue growth. Interlinked coverage on TECHi examines these tradeoffs in more detail.

Conclusion

Amazon’s scale and diversified businesses create paths to meaningful returns, but outcomes will vary widely. Investors seeking upside should watch AWS operating margins, advertising revenue growth, and regulatory developments. 

Those seeking lower risk may prefer to wait for clearer evidence that heavy infrastructure spending is lifting profit growth. Short term volatility is likely, and careful monitoring of quarterly results will remain essential.