In a note, Stifel highlighted that “Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD.” Stifel acknowledged that Tesla’s camera-based approach for autonomous driving, which is quite controversial in the industry, seems to be paying off, as the company now has in prospect the unsupervised FSD for personal use in the U.S by the end of 2025. However, Stifel considers such a timeline as aggressive, but it stresses that Tesla’s execution in the medium term is becoming credible.
Tesla said they have
high expectations for its camera-based approach, which includes Unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use in the United States by year-end 2025. A goal that appears to be a stretch but seems more likely in the medium term.
Breakdown of the Valuation
Stifel’s new valuation is hybrid, combining Tesla’s fundamental automotive franchise with its high-potential technology initiatives. The firm now makes its estimate based on “20-25x projected 2025 EBITDA” for the core business and then overlays partial valuations for future growth catalysts like FSD, Robotaxis, and the Optimus humanoid robot.
Economically, Stifel features FSD as $213 per share of Tesla’s worth, Robotaxis $140 per share, and Optimus $29 per share, which highlights the extent to which the company is betting on Tesla’s software-based future.
Rolling Out Robotaxi
Tesla’s highly anticipated Robotaxi service has already begun. The company went quietly and launched the program in Austin, Texas, earlier this year with limited service, using Model Ys with Tesla’s newest FSD stack. For the time being, a human safety monitor is still in the passenger seat, but this pilot is the starting point for Tesla’s autonomous mobility ecosystem.
Outside of Austin, Tesla has obtained permits to test autonomous cars in Nevada and Phoenix with further plans in review for Florida and New York. The state-level growth moves are important as Tesla develops the regulatory foundations and operational knowledge that it requires to expand its Robotaxi network across the entire country.
Encouraging Policy Environment
The policy environment is also becoming quite friendly and supportive for autonomous innovation. Stifel mentioned that the Trump administration’s support of autonomous technologies, particularly through the Autonomous Vehicle Acceleration Act of 2025, potentially can provide Tesla with a powerful tailwind.
The act would exempt specific autonomous vehicles from conventional safety standards and facilitate the reporting of incidents, which will decrease compliance roughness and increase real-world deployment. Stifel said,
“We are bumping our target price to $483 from $440 to reflect more confidence in FSD and Robotaxi”
Bottom Line
Through the increasing price target to $483, Stifel indicates increasing optimism that Tesla can evolve into a full-fledged AI mobility firm from being an EV pioneer. Buyers are wagering that even if ultimate autonomy is delayed beyond hype, each small step forward in FSD makes Tesla’s long-term moat even deeper.
While cynics still wonder if “Unsupervised FSD” will even be possible in 2025, the company’s updated estimates indicate that even partial success might rationalize Tesla’s lofty valuation.
With increasing regulatory backing, pilot Robotaxi projects in progress, and ongoing software refinement, Tesla’s future story seems more and more centered upon autonomy. Nevertheless, the way ahead will be volatile. If Tesla’s Robotaxi and FSD ecosystems become commercially mature, today’s valuation might come to seem like a bargain one day.
Tesla’s narrative has never been about just cars, it’s an experiment in accelerating innovation on a grand scale than anyone would have believed is possible. Stifel’s upgrade is not only a game of numbers, rather it’s a vote of confidence in Tesla’s persistent drive for technological supremacy.
Yes, regulatory challenges, trust issues from the public, and uncertainty in AI progress may slow it down, but if Tesla delivers half of what it claims to deliver, the upside potential could be gigantic. The stock’s path thus far is a reflection of its cars, speeding fast, sometimes jerking, but yet ahead of others.
Investors should strap on their seatbelts, as the FSD and Robotaxi age could not just redefine Tesla’s valuation, but the whole transportation sector.
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