2 Quantum Computing Stocks Analysts Warn Could Fall 62%

Quantum computing stocks have become a headline story in 2025 thanks to their dramatic gains. Two pure-play names, IonQ and Rigetti, have drawn particular attention after posting returns of 712% and 5,940 % over the past year.

That surge has fueled both excitement and caution. Some Wall Street analysts now warn these stocks could fall by as much as 62% if market optimism softens or key milestones are missed. These warnings come amid wide price target spreads and growing concern over execution risks.

This article explores how the rally unfolded, what assumptions underlie the steep downside scenarios, and what signals investors should monitor to assess whether those warnings are plausible.

Market Catalysts Behind the Surge

Two forces helped drive quantum computing stocks to dizzying heights in 2025: technical progress and intense investor interest in the quantum sector.

First, both IonQ and Rigetti reported key technological milestones. Rigetti introduced a 36-qubit multi-chip quantum computer ahead of schedule, and secured its first commercial hardware orders outside government contracts. It also landed a $5.8 million, three-year contract from the U.S. Air Force to aid in quantum networking development, which further boosted its standing with institutional and defense stakeholders.
Similarly, IonQ has pursued an aggressive acquisition and expansion strategy. It acquired Oxford Ionics for around $1.1 billion in stock, to augment its ion-trap capabilities and strengthen its quantum networking efforts. The deal signals IonQ’s ambition to build a broader platform beyond just computing hardware.

Second, the quantum field is receiving strong capital flows and buzz. Some estimates suggest the broader quantum industry may see billions in investment over coming years, with business and government actors betting that breakthroughs in computing, encryption, and simulation will eventually reward early risk-takers. Public markets have responded. As one recent summary noted, IonQ and Rigetti have soared 712 % and 5,940 % over the trailing year.

Part of the surge owes to market dynamics as well. These firms are small, and their stock prices can swing wildly on fresh news or sentiment shifts. With limited analyst coverage and few institutional lockups, each contract win, funding round, or technical progress report becomes magnified. In that environment, optimism about timing and prospects can carry prices upward quickly, but just as fast, they can reverse.

These catalysts helped push these two pure-play names to the forefront of quantum investing. But the same factors that fuel their rise also amplify exposure to disappointment and risk.

The Analysts’ Calls (and the Math Behind “62%”)

Rigetti and IonQ have attracted both bullish and bearish views from Wall Street. Some analysts warn that their current valuation rests on optimistic assumptions. The “up to 62 % downside” scenario derives from the gap between certain low-end price targets and the prevailing share prices.

For Rigetti (RGTI), Troy Jensen of Cantor Fitzgerald stands out. Jensen set a target of $18, while at the time Rigetti’s stock traded above $47, which implies a potential drop of about 62 %. That figure comes from comparing the current price to his target:

(Current Price − Target) ÷ Current Price ≈ (47 − 18) / 47 ≈ 0.62

Other analysts offer much more optimistic views. Benchmark’s David Williams raised his target to $50, asserting that Rigetti’s technology progress and order flow justify higher valuation; that target suggests upside rather than downside. (Barron’s news notes that change in his view.)

On Rigetti’s consensus outlook, TipRanks lists a low target of $18 and a high of $50, with the average target at $27.80, placing the implied downside from current prices at around –36.7%.

For IonQ (IONQ), analysts also display a wide divergence. According to Nasdaq’s coverage, one analyst projecting a low end of $32 indicates a 59 % plunge relative to recent trading levels. That derives from (Current Price − 32) ÷ Current Price. Meanwhile, IonQ’s consensus target (per MarketBeat) hovers at $58.33, implying less downside from its current price.

This gulf in views reflects deep uncertainty. Some analysts see quantum computing advancement and strategic moves (acquisitions, partnerships, customer wins) as justifying aggressive forward estimates. Others question how soon the technology can become commercially viable, and they demand more evidence before assigning lofty valuations.

Because both stocks are volatile and heavily sentiment-driven, a misstep in execution, guidance, or financing could prompt a rapid adjustment. The 62% downside figure thus serves as a warning: if optimism fades, those lower targets could become anchors for market revaluation.

Market Sentiment, Key Risks & Why 62% Is Plausible

Despite the enthusiasm surrounding quantum computing, sentiment across the sector remains fragile. The valuations of IonQ and Rigetti depend heavily on expectations of future breakthroughs rather than on current revenue. IonQ’s annual revenue is still below $30 million, and Rigetti’s below $20 million, yet both trade at multi-billion-dollar market capitalizations. That imbalance leaves little margin for error.

One major risk is execution delay. Quantum hardware remains technically challenging, and performance gains do not always translate into commercial demand. Missed development milestones, delays in scaling up qubit counts, or slower software adoption could all lead investors to reassess growth assumptions.

A second risk is capital and dilution pressure. Both companies depend on steady funding to advance hardware development and cloud infrastructure. Earlier in 2025, several small-cap tech firms announced new share offerings to raise cash, a move that often drives prices lower. If IonQ or Rigetti follow that path, existing shareholders could face further downside.

Finally, liquidity and momentum play an outsized role. These stocks attract speculative retail flows, and shifts in sentiment, such as a weaker earnings outlook or a missed contract, can trigger sharp reversals. With so much optimism already priced in, a 50–60% correction would not be unusual for volatile growth stocks.

Conclusion

Investors tracking IonQ and Rigetti should focus on measurable milestones rather than market hype. Upcoming earnings reports, government or enterprise contract announcements, and hardware performance updates will help determine whether current valuations are sustainable.

Capital moves also matter. Any new fundraising, insider selling, or guidance revisions could signal changing confidence levels. Analyst revisions, both upgrades and downgrades, often precede broader sentiment shifts.

For now, the quantum story remains compelling but speculative. Caution is warranted until consistent revenue growth supports higher valuations. Technological progress alone rarely guarantees market stability. In this fast-moving space, patience and skepticism may prove more valuable than chasing momentum.