What’s Next for the Quantum Computing Pioneer in the Next 3 Years?

Rigetti Computing, a pure-play quantum hardware and software firm, recently achieved a key technical milestone and is now pushing toward early commercialization. In mid-2025, Rigetti announced general availability of its 36-qubit multi-chip quantum computer and reported a 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity on that system. These developments come amid mounting investor expectations for quantum computing’s transition from laboratory to market.

Financially, Rigetti bolstered its balance sheet via a $350 million equity offering in 2025 that strengthened its cash reserves. Meanwhile, revenue remains modest and volatile, reflecting the early stage of quantum technology. 

In this climate, the company is navigating both technical challenges and market pressures as it seeks to turn breakthroughs into stable business outcomes.

Technical Roadmap & Key Milestones Ahead

Rigetti’s near-term technical agenda centers on scaling qubit count, improving error rates, and advancing modular architectures. The company has set a target to grow beyond its 36-qubit multi-chip system toward a 100+ qubit architecture later in 2025 and further toward the 1,000+ qubit range over several years. 

Achieving high fidelity and reducing noise remain critical, Rigetti’s recent milestone of 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity on its modular 36-qubit platform marked a roughly twofold improvement in error rate versus prior designs.

A central part of Rigetti’s strategy is modular chiplet design. The current 36-qubit system uses multiple interconnected chiplets, which allows incremental scaling rather than building a massive monolithic chip from the start. This architecture may ease fabrication and calibration challenges. 

That said, moving from multi-chip modules to tightly coupled, high-performance interconnects is nontrivial and will demand innovation in control electronics, quantum interconnects, and error mitigation.

Another technical hurdle arises from materials and coherence limits. A recent study revealed that niobium hydride precipitates can form in superconducting qubit films used by Rigetti, which may degrade coherence and increase noise. 

This discovery underscores how subtle materials effects can become barriers. Mitigating such defects may require advanced fabrication techniques or new materials, beyond design innovations.

On the software side, Rigetti continues refining its control and error-mitigation systems, including readout error suppression tailored to its hardware. Over the next three years, success will depend on not just scaling qubits but keeping error overheads manageable so the system can solve useful problems beyond what classical computers can.

Commercialization, Partnerships & Market Strategy

Rigetti has begun converting technical progress into early commercial traction. In September 2025, the company secured purchase orders totaling about $5.7 million for two 9-qubit Novera systems. These systems are upgradeable to higher qubit counts and are scheduled for delivery in the first half of 2026. This move signals an exit from purely research projects toward systems sales.

Another pillar in the strategy is government and defense contracting. Rigetti landed a $5.8 million, three-year contract from the U.S. Air Force to help develop quantum networking between systems, in collaboration with Dutch startup QphoX. That contract offers more stable institutional backing and may pave the way for future federal or defense clients.

On the partnership front, Rigetti maintains a manufacturing alliance with Quanta Computer to scale chip fabrication and system integration. In addition, comparisons of Rigetti’s positioning often contrast it with IonQ, highlighting that while IonQ has pushed broader cloud and acquisition-based strategies, Rigetti focuses more on hardware contracts and government work.

The company also offers its Forest software stack, including its instruction set Quil and tools like pyQuil, to external users. By combining hardware sales, cloud access, and government contracts, Rigetti is attempting to build multiple revenue paths. 

However, converting early orders into sustained customer relationships across enterprise sectors will require demonstrable performance gains and support infrastructure.

Financials, Risks & Competitive Landscape

Rigetti’s recent financials show high investments ahead of scalable revenue. As of June 30, 2025, it held $571.6 million in cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale investments, with no debt. 

That liquidity followed a $350 million capital raise earlier in 2025. Analysts note this gives the company several years of runway to pursue its roadmap without immediate liquidity pressure. 

Yet, revenue remains modest and volatile. In Q2 2025 the company reported about $1.8 million in revenue, while operating losses totaled $19.9 million. 

Over time, quarterly results have shown weak top-line growth and dependence on milestone-based contracts. In Q1 2025, revenue also fell to $1.5 million, down 52% year over year, while expenses rose.

Major risks lie in scaling execution, dilution, and competition. Because of ongoing losses, further capital raising may dilute existing shareholders. Some analysts criticize Rigetti for issuing new shares even when hardware sales are still minimal.

On the competitive front, larger players such as IBM, Google, and Microsoft invest heavily in quantum research and have broader infrastructure. Among pure quantum firms, IonQ is often framed as a near rival. 

IonQ uses a different qubit technology (trapped ions) with potentially higher fidelities, while Rigetti emphasizes manufacturability and modularity. If IonQ or others achieve a performance or adoption lead, Rigetti may lose market momentum.

Additionally, delays in achieving low error rates, coherence improvements, or breakthroughs in error correction could stall progress. Supply chain constraints, cryogenics scaling, and export or regulatory restrictions are further hazards. Sustaining trust with enterprise customers will depend on delivering reliable systems, not just prototypes.

Outlook

By 2028, Rigetti could follow one of several paths. In a base case, it may operate mid-scale systems, perhaps a few hundred qubits with improved error rates, generate recurring revenue from cloud access and government contracts, and still run at a loss. 

In a bull case, the company becomes a recognized hardware contender, lands multiple enterprise customers, and edges toward break-even or modest profitability. In the bear case, technical setbacks or competitive overtakes limit growth, forcing further dilution or restructuring.

Key metrics to watch over the next three years include bookings of quantum systems, repeat orders from clients, fidelity improvements, revenue growth trajectories, and cash burn. If Rigetti can sustain its technical momentum and convert early interest into stable business, it may secure a solid footing in the evolving quantum computing market by 2028.