Why Metaplanet’s Stock Price Is Stuck in a Bear Market Despite Bitcoin’s Rally

Even though Bitcoin is trading near its all-time high, Metaplanet’s stock price has entered a deep correction, falling nearly 40% from its yearly peak of ¥1,934 to ¥1,150. This pullback places the Japanese Bitcoin-treasury firm in a bear market, baffling many investors who expected its stock to rise in tandem with its growing BTC reserves.

As of July 27, 2025, Metaplanet holds 16,352 BTC, now worth approximately $1.9 billion, purchased at an average cost of $99,502. With Bitcoin currently going just above $118,000, the company’s holdings have appreciated by almost 20%. Yet, its stock performance lags significantly. What explains this disconnection?

Overvaluation Concerns (The NAV Premium Problem)

One of the most immediate red flags for investors is Metaplanet’s net asset value (NAV) multiple, which currently sits at 2.79. This figure represents how much more the stock trades above the real value of its holdings.

To put that into context, MicroStrategy (MSTR), widely considered the benchmark Bitcoin-treasury stock, has a NAV multiple of just 1.6. Other firms like Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms trade at even lower NAV multiples, typically below 2.

This inflated multiple means Metaplanet is priced significantly higher relative to its assets than its competitors. As highlighted by CoinDesk, such valuation discrepancies have made many analysts and institutional investors cautious. In essence, the stock got ahead of itself earlier this year, and the market is now recalibrating.

Share Dilution: Too Much, Too Fast

Another key reason for the price drop is stock dilution. Metaplanet has been funding its Bitcoin purchases by issuing new shares. While this allows it to accumulate more BTC, it simultaneously reduces the value of existing shares by expanding the supply.

Back in 2022, Metaplanet had around 57 million shares outstanding. Fast-forward to mid-2025, and that number has exploded to 459 million. That’s an eightfold increase in just three years.

The dilution isn’t necessarily a bad strategy in a rising BTC market. However, when done too aggressively, it weakens investor confidence, especially if the company continues down this path to reach its goal of holding 100,000 BTC. Many investors are now concerned that the firm’s stock could remain under pressure for as long as dilution outpaces organic growth.

This is a similar issue that MicroStrategy faced in its early Bitcoin acquisition phases, but it managed to offset the concerns through strong quarterly earnings and better communication. Metaplanet, by contrast, has not diversified its business model or revenue streams, making it more exposed to dilution backlash.

Bitcoin Correlation Has Limits

Even with Bitcoin nearing $120,000, Metaplanet hasn’t followed suit. The assumption that “Bitcoin up means Metaplanet up” has proven unreliable. This pattern is not unique to Metaplanet, MicroStrategy’s stock is still 25% below its all-time high, despite BTC’s strong rally in recent months.

This divergence is due to a range of factors, including investor preference for more diversified holdings, valuation fatigue, and shifting sentiment toward Bitcoin-treasury stocks.

Even if Bitcoin does push to $200,000 in the next cycle, driven by rising global liquidity, companies like Metaplanet will only benefit if they manage shareholder expectations and cap dilution. In other words, Bitcoin price alone is no longer enough to move these stocks higher.

Technicals Suggest a Potential Rebound

Despite the recent losses, the technical picture isn’t entirely grim. As shown on TradingView, the stock has retraced to the 38.2% Fibonacci level near ¥1,200, a common support zone during corrections.

Moreover, Metaplanet’s weekly chart has formed a hammer candlestick pattern, characterized by a small body and a long lower wick. This is typically seen as a bullish reversal signal, particularly when it appears near a major technical level.

The stock also remains well above its 50-week and 100-week moving averages, which indicates that the longer-term trend is still upward. A bounce from current levels could materialize if Bitcoin resumes its upward march and Metaplanet pauses further share issuance.

Conclusion: Can Metaplanet Recover?

Yes, but recovery will depend on several factors converging. First, Bitcoin needs to remain stable or rise, potentially toward the $125K–$130K range. Second, Metaplanet must slow its dilution strategy and offer greater transparency around its long-term roadmap. Third, it needs to earn back investor trust by communicating a clearer plan for revenue diversification and treasury management.

The stock’s current bear market phase is, in many ways, a correction of its own meteoric rise. However, the underlying fundamentals related to Bitcoin remain strong, and the equity holders are now asking for more than just asset exposure: they want discipline, balance, and sustainable growth.

Until those expectations are met, Metaplanet’s stock will likely lag the very asset that underpins its balance sheet.