Critical Support And Targets, for July 2025

XRP edges toward a breakout zone as market structure tightens, analysts eye $4.64, but risks remain.

As XRP climbs back into focus this July, traders and analysts are dissecting key support and resistance levels to determine whether the token is preparing for a bullish leg upward or merely consolidating before another reversal. 

After a volatile start to the month and a failed breakout above previous highs, XRP now sits at a technical crossroads. Many bulls are optimistic, yet wary, especially given the recent lack of conviction from buyers at the top.

The latest trading outlook from Binance Square outlines a tactical playbook for both short-term positioning and long-term accumulation in XRP. 

Failed Breakout Raises Questions (Are Bulls Trapped)

On July 23, XRP saw a strong upward move that appeared to confirm a bullish breakout. But within hours, shorts stepped in aggressively, forcing the token back below its previous high. The failed breakout has left many bulls trapped at the top, with the current structure suggesting waning buyer interest.

Volume has dropped significantly since XRP’s last two all-time highs, indicating a reduction in market momentum. As the report notes, “Buyers are just not willing to get involved with the same conviction as before (yet). No buyers, no continuation, even if there aren’t many sellers or profit-takers.”

This market hesitation, coupled with the failed breakout, has introduced short-term uncertainty. However, it has also opened a tactical opportunity if buyers return at historically strong demand zones.

$2.95 Reaction Zone (Still Holding Bullish)

Even though there was a failed breakout, XRP’s reaction at $2.95 was powerful. This level, considered a major demand zone, saw aggressive buying and remains structurally intact. “Strong buyers proved their interest with a ‘hot’ reaction at $2.95. With no real seller coming into this market yet, there’s nothing stopping this continuation from legging up (so far),” writes Saha.

That puts $2.95 as a critical support level moving forward. As long as XRP holds above this zone, there’s reason to remain bullish in the short term.

If buyers defend this region again, the next bullish leg could target $4.64, a significant 40%+ move from current levels.

Volume, Sentiment, and Whale Movements

Volume remains a key signal to watch. As pointed out by CoinDesk, XRP’s daily trading volume has tapered off compared to its early July spike, despite price support holding. This divergence often precedes either a breakout, or a deeper correction.

Adding to the uncertainty is a recent report from Techi that Ripple co-founder Jed McCaleb moved $175 million worth of XRP to a known exchange wallet. While large transfers don’t always translate into sell pressure, such whale activity typically heightens trader caution.

The market has so far absorbed the move without significant downside, suggesting that current demand may be strong enough to counter potential selloffs. Still, the timing of such transfers often influences sentiment, especially when market structure is fragile.

What Happens if XRP Fails to Hold $2.95?

Should XRP lose its footing below $2.95, the bullish scenario quickly deteriorates. A close below this level opens the door to a retest of the $2.15–$2.30 zone, which acted as strong support earlier in the year. If that level fails, the next high-conviction accumulation zone lies around $1.60–$1.93, a range that many long-term bulls are eyeing as a “steal.”

This fallback scenario isn’t off the table, especially if market-wide risk sentiment deteriorates. In that case, Bitcoin and Ethereum would likely also see a pullback, dragging altcoins like XRP along with them.

The Macro View: Regulatory Tailwinds and Institutional Interest

Outside of technical levels, XRP continues to be influenced by broader regulatory developments. Following Ripple’s partial win in its legal battle with the SEC in 2024, institutional interest in XRP has increased. With the GENIUS Act and U.S. digital dollar discussions pushing blockchain policy into mainstream legislation, digital assets like XRP are gaining more legitimacy as global payment infrastructure alternatives.

XRP is now being positioned as a contender for cross-border payment solutions in U.S.–Europe corridors, which is a potential fundamental catalyst that could support upward price pressure over time.

XRP at a Crucial Juncture

This month, XRP sits on a knife’s edge. A break above $3.30 with confirmation could fuel the next bullish move toward $4.64. But a failure to hold $2.95 could mean a retrace all the way to the low $2 or even high $1 range.

For traders, the opportunity is real, but so is the risk. The setup remains one of the more technically clean plays in the current market, with a solid structure, clear invalidation, and respectable upside potential. Just remember: as always in crypto, timing and risk management will determine whether this turns into a home run or a hard reset.