Should You Sell Ahead of Earnings on October 23?

Intel shares have surged roughly 80% year to date, marking one of the strongest comebacks among major chipmakers. The rally has drawn attention because it comes just days before Intel is scheduled to report its third-quarter results on October 23, 2025. 

With investor expectations high, the earnings release could act as either a catalyst for further gains or a trigger for profit-taking.

As markets brace for Intel’s results, questions have emerged about whether the stock’s ascent has outpaced fundamentals. Could this rally be mostly sentiment? Or do the company’s upcoming results justify its lofty valuation?

What fueled the rally

Intel’s stock gain this year rests on several converging narratives that have rekindled investor optimism. First, government support and policy shifts have helped. In August 2025, the U.S. government purchased a 9.9% stake in Intel at $20.47 per share under the CHIPS Act framework, injecting confidence into its foundry ambitions.

SoftBank also contributed by investing $2 billion in Intel shares at $23 apiece, a move widely interpreted as a vote of confidence in Intel’s roadmap and reinvention efforts. 

Second, strategic partnerships and equity infusions have magnified market interest. Nvidia committed $5 billion to Intel and entered a bilateral deal focused on joint development of data-center and PC chips. 

This alignment suggests mutual bets on combining Intel’s architecture with Nvidia’s AI acceleration. Reported tests by Nvidia and Broadcom of Intel’s 18A process for AI chip manufacturing also surfaced in market reports, offering hope that foundry customers will line up. 

Third, the rally is broadly tied to the macro tech environment. The AI and semiconductor sectors have attracted heightened flows, and investor appetite for any chipmaker with a plausible roadmap is strong. Several analysts and press outlets list investor optimism, aided further by momentum in related stocks, as a key driver behind the surge.

Finally, despite the dilution risk, Intel’s equity raises have been viewed by many as necessary to fund its transformation. The company has sold stakes to government, SoftBank, Nvidia, and others, moves that provide liquidity needed for capital-intensive foundry investment, even while diluting existing equity. The market seems willing to view the dilution tradeoff as acceptable in light of the broader upside narrative.

In sum, the rally is a blend of policy, capital, partnership optics, and broader sector momentum. But the question now is whether those narratives are grounded enough to survive a detailed earnings review.

Fundamentals versus sentiment: analyst views and risks

While bullish investors point to momentum and promises, a growing chorus of analysts warns that the stock move may be detached from real business progress. One Bank of America team flagged that the stock “has climbed too far, too fast,” pointing out that Intel lacks a competitive AI accelerator and faces erosion in server and PC share. 

Similarly, HSBC analysts downgraded Intel amid concerns that the rally is not sustainable without concrete execution. 

One central risk is in Intel’s foundry ambition. Building a leading contract semiconductor business is hard, and early customer commitments, yield curves, and volume ramps will be closely watched. Some analysts warn that Intel needs to show consistent wins across nodes like 18A and 14A. Without multiple anchor clients and proof of manufacturing stability, the promise remains speculative.

Another concern is the gap between narrative and cash flow. Intel is still contending with losses. The recent stock surge has not erased legacy structural challenges. 

Some reports observe that the company’s product lineup in areas like high-end server CPUs remains behind rivals like AMD or ARM-based suppliers. That leaves Intel vulnerable if the market turns critical.

Dilution is also a notable risk. The capital raises that fueled enthusiasm also dilute earnings per share, and some analysts argue that investors may be underestimating the damage. If future capital needs arise, further dilution or debt might muddy the equity case.

On the positive side, proponents argue that if even part of Intel’s foundry roadmap succeeds or partners like Nvidia deepen integration, the upside is significant. But most cautious views emphasize that until earnings and guidance deliver, much of the current valuation is driven by sentiment.

The key question now is which side proves more resilient when the company faces detailed scrutiny in its upcoming results.

Why the October 23 earnings call matters

Intel’s upcoming October 23, 2025 earnings report carries particular weight because it will test whether the company’s impressive rally can be backed by solid performance data. Investors are watching closely for improvements in gross margins and guidance for the fourth quarter, as these indicators will reveal if Intel’s turnaround strategy is translating into financial progress. 

Details on customer adoption for the company’s 18A process node and its position in the AI-PC segment will also be critical, since both are central to Intel’s effort to reassert manufacturing leadership and regain share from AMD and ARM-based competitors.

Analysts will be looking for tangible updates on foundry bookings and customer commitments, including any confirmation of rumored collaborations with major chip designers. Capital allocation will be another focus area. Intel’s recent equity sales to strategic investors have improved liquidity, but investors will want reassurance that further dilution will not follow. 

Finally, commentary from CEO Pat Gelsinger on Intel’s broader AI and data-center strategies could determine short-term sentiment. If the company fails to meet expectations or delivers cautious guidance, the stock could quickly reverse part of its 2025 gains.

Conclusion

Intel’s rally has rewarded early believers, but it now leaves little margin for disappointment. Traders seeking quick momentum may hold positions through the earnings call, expecting volatility to create short-term opportunities. Long-term investors, however, might prefer to wait for confirmation of stronger fundamentals before adding exposure.

The 80% rise this year has raised expectations to levels that require clear evidence of execution. Until the company demonstrates consistent profit growth and credible foundry traction, the prudent approach may be to stay cautious or lock in partial gains ahead of results.