Which Quantum Stock Offers Better Long-Term Value

Quantum computing is shifting from laboratory curiosity to a field of serious commercial interest. The question for investors now is whether to back a specialist whose entire focus is quantum technology, or to choose a diversified leader that includes quantum as one of many bets.

This article compares Rigetti Computing, a pure-play in quantum hardware and software, against Alphabet, which houses Google’s quantum ambitions within a much broader technology business. The goal is to assess which stock offers a more compelling risk-reward profile over the medium term, based on their business models, strategic positioning, and financial fundamentals.

Business models & strategic positioning

Rigetti is organized as a full-stack quantum systems company. It designs and fabricates superconducting quantum processors, builds control infrastructure, and offers cloud access via its Quantum Cloud Services (QCS) platform. Since 2017, it has provided quantum machines over the cloud to enterprise, government, and research customers.

Its revenue model combines hardware sales (on-premises systems), cloud subscriptions, and partnerships or contracts with research and government agencies. The company develops its chips in-house at its Fab-1 facility to maintain tighter control over design and manufacturing.

Because it is singularly focused on quantum, Rigetti’s fortunes will closely track how quickly quantum applications mature. Its recent contract wins, such as a $5.8 million deal with the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory for quantum networking, show it is securing government support. But the company does not have fallback businesses if quantum commercialization is delayed.

Alphabet’s quantum efforts are housed inside its Google Quantum AI division. Its public milestone came with the introduction of the Willow quantum chip, which demonstrated error correction scaling and reportedly solved a benchmark problem in under five minutes, a task that might take classical supercomputers trillions of years. Willow is built on superconducting qubits and shows Alphabet is aiming toward fault-tolerant quantum systems.

Rather than monetizing quantum directly today, Alphabet likely uses quantum advances to support its AI, cloud, and infrastructure strengths. Its massive scale, deep pockets, and diversified revenue streams allow it to absorb disappointments in quantum without threatening its core business. That gives it the flexibility to sustain long development timelines.

Moreover, Alphabet is committing billions to infrastructure investments. In 2025, it plans about $75 billion in capital spending to expand data centers for AI and related systems. That backing strengthens its ability to test and support quantum systems as they scale.

Because of its broader base, Alphabet’s quantum projects remain an internal bet rather than a standalone business. Success in quantum would be a bonus to its dominant search, ads, cloud, and AI operations.

Financial & valuation comparison

Rigetti:

Rigetti remains a nascent revenue company. Its financials have shown volatility: for example, in a recent quarter, revenue fell 52 % year over year to about $1.5 million, partly because of lower-margin contracts and elevated costs. Meanwhile, its reported net profit was inflated by non-cash accounting gains, not core operations.

Because revenue is unpredictable and losses are large, its stock tends to be volatile and heavily dependent on contract announcements or technical milestones. Its valuation must be justified on future potential rather than current earnings. Analysts note that much of its value hinges on hitting quantum performance inflection points and securing recurring customers.

One advantage is that upside is not capped: if quantum becomes a practical technology and Rigetti captures a meaningful share of the market, the returns could be multiples of today’s price. But that outcome is far from certain.

Alphabet:

Alphabet offers strong financial footing. In Q2 2025, it delivered $96.4 billion in revenue, marking a 14 % year-over-year increase, while its operating margin was about 32.4 %. Its net income in the same quarter rose 19 % to $28.2 billion.

Its cloud business is also growing rapidly, Google Cloud revenue rose 32 % year-over-year to $13.6 billion in that quarter. These results underpin Alphabet’s capacity to invest heavily in quantum infrastructure without jeopardizing its core business.

From a valuation perspective, Alphabet trades at a moderate multiple for a tech giant. Its quantum work is a small part of its business, so the stock is insulated from quantum’s delays. If quantum breakthroughs succeed, they may act as a multiplier to value rather than the sole driver.

In summary, Rigetti offers a high-risk, high-reward scenario, with financials that depend heavily on execution and technical success. Alphabet, by contrast, provides financial stability with exposure to quantum upside as part of a diversified technology portfolio.

Risks, timelines, and catalysts

Both Rigetti and Alphabet face significant technical, market, and timing risks before quantum computing becomes a commercially meaningful business. One major risk is that quantum systems continue to struggle with error rates, decoherence, and scaling limitations. Many experts believe that truly practical quantum computers remain five to ten years away, as noted by Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai. Forecasting studies also suggest that fault-tolerant systems capable of breaking strong encryption (e.g. RSA-2048) may not emerge before 2039 under conservative assumptions.

For Rigetti, the financial and execution risks are particularly acute. Its dependence on a few large contracts makes its revenue “lumpy,” causing quarters of drops such as a 52% revenue decline in a recent quarter to about $1.5 million. It has somewhat limited cash reserves relative to its ambitious roadmap, though recent capital raises have given it runway for a few years of R&D. Any delay in hitting key technical milestones, or inability to ramp production of quantum hardware reliably, could severely derail its value proposition.

Alphabet benefits from insulating its quantum efforts within a broader, stable business. If quantum advances stall, its core operations in search, advertising, cloud, and AI can carry the company. 

That said, there are internal risks: resource allocation decisions, shifting priorities, or management scepticism could delay progress. Also, breakthroughs in quantum pose regulatory and security consequences, especially as quantum threatens existing encryption methods, and that may draw scrutiny or slow deployment.

Among catalysts, Rigetti could see sharp upside if it consistently secures hardware or cloud contracts, demonstrates scaling to higher-qubit machines with lower error rates, and locks in recurring clients. Indeed, it recently landed $5.7 million in quantum system orders that helped spark renewed interest. 

For Alphabet, further demonstrations using its Willow chip or successor architectures, and integration of quantum features into Google Cloud or internal AI workflows, would be meaningful inflection points. Its ability to round out quantum as one pillar in a diversified business gives it optionality.

Given the high uncertainties, the meaningful time horizon for deciding which bet is better lies over the next 5 to 10 years. Investors should expect false starts, shifting assumptions, and volatility through that span. Quantum is not a short-term bet; patience, monitoring of technical progress, and flexibility will be essential.

Conclusion

Rigetti offers a volatile but high-return potential if quantum breakthroughs happen and it captures meaningful market share. For aggressive investors with high risk tolerance, a small allocation to Rigetti might pay off big. In contrast, Alphabet presents a more balanced bet: limited downside relative to quantum hype, but still exposure to upside if those efforts succeed.

A pragmatic approach could be a core position in Alphabet supplemented by a smaller speculative stake in Rigetti. That approach offers a blend of stability and upside exposure, acknowledging that quantum remains a long-term play with many hurdles to clear.