What makes this moment stand out is the suggestion that Apple has entered a genuine refresh wave, following years in which its smartphone cycle had been viewed as soft. The firm’s optimism links directly to stronger upgrade demand, rising production signals and the possibility of leveraging Apple’s installed base. Given the context of a tech market hunting for tangible growth catalysts, Apple’s combination of hardware and services renewal has captured attention.
The next sections will explore why the iPhone 17 is seen as the spark, how Wedbush builds its $310 target, and what this all means for Apple’s near-term outlook.
Why iPhone 17 is the spark
The iPhone 17 series appears to be resonating strongly with consumers, and for several reasons. First, pre-launch indicators show that demand is running ahead of the prior cycle. Wedbush estimates that iPhone 17 demand is tracking approximately 10-15% ahead of the iPhone 16 launch. This suggests that what might have been expected as a moderate upgrade year is showing signs of a more meaningful wave.
Second, there is a large base of iPhones in use that have not been upgraded in years. Wedbush puts the number of devices not updated over the past four years at roughly 315 million. That large backlog provides a runway for a stronger cycle, especially if price remains stable or incentives are well aligned.
Third, supply-chain and market signals corroborate the strength: shipping delays for the base iPhone 17 and the Pro Max in multiple markets, production plans up about 20% in Asia compared with last year for key models. Key markets such as the U.S. and China, where Apple faces intense competition but also has strong brand pull, are showing early strength. For example, Chinese preorders for the 256 GB base iPhone 17 reportedly set new records, according to local reports.
Moreover, the new iPhone Air model (a thinner, more accessible version) is playing into this wave by reaching markets with thinner margins but high volume potential. Wedbush notes that the iPhone Air is even performing better than expected in China.
In sum, the combination of elevated demand tracking, a large upgrade pool and favourable production signals underpin the view that iPhone 17 is not just an incremental refresh, but potentially the catalyst for a broader rebound in Apple’s hardware business.
Wedbush’s $310 target
Wedbush’s price target of $310 rests on several interlocking assumptions. One key assumption is higher unit volume for iPhones. The firm estimates that for fiscal 2026, Apple might ship 240–250 million iPhones, above the consensus near 230 million. That increment, if achieved, contributes meaningfully to revenue and market sentiment.
Another assumption is mix and margin improvement. Stronger uptake of the Pro and Pro Max models, which carry higher ASPs (average selling prices), plus quicker upgrades, are expected to lift the hardware contribution. At the same time, the installed base of ~1.5 billion iPhones globally gives Apple greater leverage for its services business, which is higher margin.
Wedbush also factors in the “optional upside” of Apple’s longer-term initiatives, such as AI and next-generation hardware. In its note, the firm suggests that if Apple executes on its AI roadmap and partnerships, an incremental $75 to $100 per share upside is possible. While this is speculative, it underpins the bullish tilt beyond just current cycle strength.
Importantly, Wedbush is maintaining rather than raising, meaning the firm sees the current target as holding through near-term; the reaffirmation signals confidence in timing and execution rather than needing to reset expectations higher today.
Because Apple’s stock already trades near a high multiple relative to its peers, the target implies a meaningful upside from current pricing. That sets the thesis: if the upgrade cycle executes, the $310 target may be reachable; if not, expectations may need to be re-evaluated. The combination of a stronger hardware cycle and growth in services creates the foundation for the target, while longer-term optionality around AI and ecosystem monetisation provide added upside.
Risks and counter-arguments: What could stop the momentum?
Despite the optimism surrounding Apple’s iPhone 17 cycle, analysts caution that several risks could limit the upside. One key concern is the product mix. While early orders appear strong, some reports indicate that demand is skewing toward the base iPhone 17 and the iPhone Air, which carry lower margins. This could compress Apple’s average selling price and reduce earnings potential, even if unit sales rise.
Competition in China also remains a major factor. Huawei’s recent resurgence, particularly with its Mate 70 line, could pressure Apple’s share in one of its most profitable regions. According to Reuters, Apple’s iPhone 17 pre-orders in China started strong but later slowed as local brands regained ground. Regulatory uncertainty and potential trade tensions add further volatility to this picture.
There is also the question of sustainability. Analysts at Morningstar note that early demand spikes sometimes fade after the initial months, and Apple must sustain momentum into 2026 to justify bullish forecasts. Lastly, expectations for Apple’s artificial intelligence integration remain speculative. Investors may be overpricing the near-term benefits, while costs and competition in AI development continue to rise. These factors together present a balanced picture of both opportunity and vulnerability.
Implications for investors and Apple’s broader narrative
For investors, Wedbush’s reaffirmed $310 target provides a structured optimism rather than blind enthusiasm. The firm’s case relies on a multi-year upgrade wave supported by strong demand, rising margins, and expanding services revenue. However, as valuation stretches, the margin for error narrows.
The broader narrative for Apple extends beyond stock price. The iPhone 17’s reception suggests that Apple can still deliver a meaningful refresh cycle even in a mature smartphone market. It also signals that the company’s strategy of combining incremental design updates with ecosystem-driven growth remains effective.
In the wider technology landscape, Apple’s performance could influence investor sentiment across the sector, especially among hardware makers seeking growth amid slower consumer spending. This cycle might mark a turning point for premium devices regaining momentum. Still, the ultimate test will be Apple’s next few quarters, where real sales and earnings will determine whether this bullish outlook holds.
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