Nebius has surged into view after a multi-year deal with Microsoft Corporation valued at up to US$17.4 billion to provide GPU-rich capacity through 2031. Meanwhile CoreWeave has posted extremely rapid growth in recent quarters, with its Q1 2025 revenue of US$981.6 million up dramatically from a year earlier. The question for investors is therefore this: in a sector defined by rapid expansion and heavy capital investment, which stock offers the better risk-reward proposition? A clear comparison of business models, financial performance and strategic positioning may help answer that question.
Business Models & Market Positioning
Nebius positions itself as a full-stack AI infrastructure provider. Headquartered in Amsterdam and with operations across Europe, North America and Israel, Nebius says it builds large-scale GPU clusters, provides software tooling for AI workloads and offers cloud platforms specially configured for intensive model training.
Its landmark deal with Microsoft highlights this positioning: Microsoft has committed to buy capacity from Nebius across a data-centre campus in New Jersey. The scale of that deal gives Nebius a visible anchor contract, albeit the business remains at an earlier phase of commercial deployment. Nebius has also raised billions in convertible notes to fund its build-out.
CoreWeave is a U.S. cloud-infrastructure specialist that focuses on GPU-based compute for AI training and inference. It works with major AI labs and enterprises that need high-performance workloads rather than generic cloud computing. CoreWeave has formed partnerships with leading hardware vendors (such as NVIDIA) and has begun rolling out data-centre capacity rapidly. Its recent moves show product extensions beyond pure compute, such as a new “AI-object storage” service designed specifically for data-intensive model training.
In comparing the two, Nebius is somewhat earlier in its commercial ramp but holds a large strategic deal which gives it revenue visibility. CoreWeave is more advanced in capacity deployment and client exposure, but also carries higher execution and capital-intensity risk. Each business model reflects the broader infrastructure wave supporting AI, but the key difference lies in the timing, scale and maturity of their footprints.
Growth & Valuation
Nebius reported revenue growth of approximately 625% year-over-year in Q2 2025, with revenue reaching about US$105.1 million. That rapid top-line expansion reflects growing adoption of its infrastructure platform, albeit from a relatively small base. Following the Microsoft deal, analysts have noted that Nebius may see substantial revenue commitments through 2031. On the funding side, Nebius announced a public offering of Class A shares and convertible senior notes with gross proceeds of about US$4.2 billion to accelerate infrastructure build-out. The valuation of Nebius has surged in reaction to these developments, though profitability remains a future target rather than a present reality.
CoreWeave, by contrast, already has a more meaningful scale. For 2024, its revenue was about US$1.92 billion. Analysts estimate its revenue could grow at a compound annual rate of ~106% from 2024 to 2027, reaching about US$16.7 billion by then. For Q1 2025 the company achieved revenue of US$981.6 million, up ~420% year‐on‐year, but it still reported a net loss as it invests heavily in capacity. On the balance sheet, CoreWeave expanded its revolving credit facility to US$1.5 billion in May 2025 to support growth.
In terms of valuation, both stocks carry rich expectations. Nebius is being priced for rapid build-out and contract realisation; CoreWeave is being valued for scaling and monetising a large backlog of contracts. Key risks remain: for Nebius, execution and dilution; for CoreWeave, customer concentration and heavy capex. In short, the growth numbers favour CoreWeave in the near term given its scale, but the upside may be broader for Nebius, if it executes as promised.
Key Risks
Both Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) and CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) face heavy execution and market-risks in the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure sector. For Nebius, a key issue is that it is still unprofitable and scaling its operations under considerable uncertainty.
Analysts note it carries “limited cash reserves and unrealistic revenue growth targets” in the face of stiff competition from big-cloud providers. Its disclosures list more than 50 risk-factors, with finance and corporate matters dominating. Moreover, execution risk is elevated because its growth depends heavily on GPU supply, delivery of new data-centres, and the ability to convert large deals into cash flows.
For CoreWeave, the scale of opportunity is large but comes with significant exposure: it carries high debt and a narrow customer base, which present meaningful strategic pitfalls. One review states CRWV “faces significant risks from customer concentration, heavy debt, and high-interest expenses” despite strong revenue growth. It also competes with massive cloud players such as Amazon.com, Inc. (AWS) and Alphabet Inc. (Google Cloud), making pricing and differentiation harder as the market matures.
In addition to company-specific risks, both firms are exposed to macro-and structural challenges: a slower-than-expected AI hardware build-out, a drop in GPU prices, or an economic downturn could all hamper demand. In this competitive landscape the margin for error is thin and business models must deliver not just growth but eventually profitability.
Which Stock Might Be “Better”
Choosing between Nebius and CoreWeave depends on the investor’s time horizon and risk tolerance. For those comfortable with a longer runway and higher execution risk, Nebius may offer broader upside: it is earlier in its commercial ramp, has large strategic contracts lined up, and may still be trading with more growth embedded. On the other hand, CoreWeave appeals to investors seeking a company already operating at scale with major client relationships.
Key watch-points for Nebius include: whether its announced contracts convert into realised revenue, successful data-centre build-out without major delays, and dilution from additional funding is kept in check. For CoreWeave, important indicators include: reduction in customer concentration (i.e., fewer than 50 % of revenue from one client), capex and debt path under control, and margin improvement rather than just top-line growth.
In summary, if growth expectations hold and execution is strong, Nebius could represent the higher-risk, higher-reward option. If reliability, scale and near-term momentum matter more, CoreWeave may be the more pragmatic pick. Either way, both stocks reflect one of the most dynamic parts of the tech sector and warrant close monitoring.
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