These numbers raise a key question for investors: three years from now, where might QBTS stock stand given its technology, market position, and financial state?
This article examines that question by looking at the broader quantum computing context, reviewing D-Wave’s current business and financials, and assessing the major drivers and risks that could shape its trajectory.
The Context: Quantum Computing and D-Wave’s Position
Quantum computing holds the promise of solving certain kinds of problems, such as optimisation, simulation and materials science, that are difficult for classical computers. While universal, fault-tolerant quantum machines remain largely theoretical, companies are advancing specialised systems today.
D-Wave, founded in 1999, claims to be the world’s first commercial supplier of quantum computers and states that it is
“the only company building both annealing and gate-model quantum computers”.
D-Wave’s technology is based primarily on quantum annealing, a method suited to optimisation tasks, rather than the gate-model approaches used by others such as IBM Corporation and Google LLC. Its recent “Advantage2” system claims over 4,400 qubits and improved connectivity.
In terms of market position, D-Wave sees itself ahead in commercialised quantum-hardware deployments and a cloud-based access service (its Leap platform).
However, the broader quantum industry remains nascent, and many competing firms and architectures are pursuing alternative routes. That means D-Wave’s lead may be meaningful in the short term, but the long-term race is still open.
Business, Financials & Stock Sentiment
D-Wave’s business model rests on selling quantum systems, leasing access via its cloud service, and offering software and solver tools built around its hardware. According to its investor overview, it focuses on helping customers deploy quantum systems either on-premises or via the cloud.
Financially, the company is showing early signs of momentum but remains unprofitable. In its Q2 2025 results, revenue rose 42 % year-over-year, and gross profit increased by the same percentage. The company also reported the highest cash balance in its history, at over $819 million. For Q1 2025, D-Wave reported “record quarterly revenue” of $15 million and record GAAP gross profit of $13.9 million.
Despite this progress, problems remain. For example, operating expenses are increasing due to research, development and go-to-market investment. The net loss in Q1 2025 was about $5.4 million. The company has also raised large sums in equity offerings to build cash buffers.
Growth Drivers & Risks
Several key developments could shape D-Wave’s stock trajectory over the next three years. On the growth side, the company’s Advantage2 system marks an important technological milestone. With over 4,400 qubits and enhanced connectivity, it has already been delivered to early customers, including a European supercomputing center.
If D-Wave can expand sales of this system and attract more enterprise customers through its Leap cloud platform, revenue may grow steadily.
D-Wave’s early commercial focus could give it an advantage in securing customers that need near-term quantum solutions. The company’s growing relationships in logistics, manufacturing, and national research sectors also signal opportunities for recurring contracts and service-based income.
However, the risks are equally significant. The most immediate challenge is that D-Wave remains deeply unprofitable, with ongoing operating losses. Sustaining research and expanding production could lead to future share dilution if more capital is raised.
The company also faces competition from firms pursuing different quantum models, including IBM, IonQ, and Google, which may ultimately attract more enterprise customers if their gate-based systems prove more scalable.
Where Might the Stock Be in 2028?
Forecasting D-Wave’s share price in 2028 is difficult, given the early stage of the quantum market. Analysts’ short-term projections vary widely, with some seeing the stock settling near $20 per share within the next year, while others anticipate a sharper decline if growth slows.
If the company sustains its current revenue growth rate of roughly 40 % year-on-year, it could reach annual revenue of about $100 – 150 million by 2028. Assuming the market rewards progress with a valuation multiple similar to high-growth tech firms, that could imply a potential market capitalization between $11 – .5 billion.
However, if losses persist and customer adoption lags, the stock could remain under pressure. Investors should see D-Wave less as a short-term trade and more as a speculative, long-term bet on quantum computing’s eventual commercialization.
Conclusion
D-Wave Quantum stands at the edge of one of technology’s most ambitious frontiers. Its systems are already in commercial use, and the company continues to refine its hardware and expand its customer base. Yet, the path to profitability remains uncertain, and the next few years will determine whether it can translate technical promise into stable revenue.
For now, D-Wave represents both the optimism and volatility of the quantum sector. If the company executes on its roadmap and the market for practical quantum applications grows, its stock could be one of the most closely watched stories in emerging technology by 2028.
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