The story of Rigetti is both a narrative about a deep-tech startup aiming for breakthrough scale and a public-markets tale of quantum computing hype. For many investors, RGTI now sits at the intersection of ambitious hardware engineering and speculative valuation. That mix explains why the question “can it reach $80?” is being asked more loudly in trading circles.
While the company still operates in the “lab-to-market” phase, its journey highlights how quantum computing moved from niche research into investor consciousness. The question now is whether the underlying business and tech can sustain the hype.
What’s driving the recent surge
Rigetti’s recent rally reflects several converging themes. First, milestone progress on the tech front helped restore investor confidence. For example, the company recently announced a modular 36-qubit quantum processor and is targeting a 100+ qubit system by the end of 2025.
Second, contract wins and government interest added tangible credibility. Rigetti reportedly secured a three-year, US$5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to work on superconducting quantum networking. Moreover, recent reporting indicates that the US government is considering equity-stakes in quantum-technology firms including Rigetti, which helped lift market sentiment.
Third, the broader quantum investment narrative turned more bullish in 2025 as the sector began to gather institutional flows. One outlet notes that quantum-computing stocks are rallying on the basis of U.S. strategic policy shifts.
Put together, technical progress plus visible contract wins plus macro momentum explain why RGTI’s price action has caught extra attention. Investors appear willing to pay up for “quantum story” exposure, even as the company remains at an early stage.
Fundamentals, valuation and the quantum-commercial gap
However, the backdrop includes substantive caveats. On the revenue side, Rigetti remains in the early commercial phase. For example, the company’s first quarter 2025 revenue dropped roughly 52 % year-over-year to about US$1.47 million. Meanwhile, it reports large operating losses and carries high cash-burn risk absent a profitable scale.
On valuation, the company trades at a very high multiple based on future promise rather than near-term fundamentals. One analysis described it as “massively overvalued” relative to current scale.
The core gap is commercialisation: quantum hardware remains harder to sell than research contracts, error-correction remains a challenge, and many customers remain in the experimental phase. As such, the leap from prototype to profit remains sizable.
In sum, the hype around hitting high milestones and big revenues is not yet matched by large recurring revenue today. This mismatch means that RGTI is as much a speculative story as a tech investment.
Paths to $80
A share-price target of US$80 for Rigetti implies several key things must go right. First, scaling: the company must deliver on its roadmap of moving beyond dozens of qubits into hundreds, and show meaningful improvements in fidelity and error-rates. The modular 36-qubit system and promise of 100+ qubits by the end of 2025 are steps in that direction.
Second, commercial traction: delivering hardware or cloud services to enterprise or government customers at scale will matter. Contracts will have to shift from pure R&D grants to repeatable revenue. Third, a favourable macro backdrop: continued government quantum-strategy support, strategic partnerships, and favorable regulation will help the narrative persist.
On the flip side, derailers include delays in hardware milestones, persistent losses and need for further capital raising (which risks dilution), disappointing client uptake, or competition leap-frogging Rigetti’s approach. Analysts warn the downside risk is meaningful if expectations are not met.
If all aligns, technical scaling, early commercial wins, and macro tailwinds, then an $80 target may become plausible. If any major piece is delayed or falters, the value could compress sharply.
What it means for investors
For investors, Rigetti’s story is emblematic of the wider quantum-computing sector: early stage, high risk, but potentially high reward if execution follows. The stock is less a near-term income generator and more a bet on technology scaling and market emergence over years. The presence of government contracts and strategic interest adds credibility, but it does not replace the commercial reality.
Investors who believe quantum computing will become a major commercial technology by the end of this decade may view RGTI as a high-conviction play. Others may prefer more diversified exposure via larger firms with broader technology portfolios. The key takeaway is that the quantum narrative is gaining momentum, but it remains a long-horizon play rather than a short-term trade.
In summary, Rigetti’s path to $80 hinges on bridging the current gap between ambitious promises and practical delivery. Whether the stock hits that mark depends as much on timing, discipline and commercial execution as it does on headline milestones.
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