Should You Buy Palantir Stock Before Nov. 3? Key Insights & Risks

The software and analytics firm Palantir Technologies Inc. finds itself at a pivotal moment. The company is set to release its third-quarter results on Nov. 3, and many investors are asking whether buying the stock now makes sense or if it might be wiser to wait. Palantir has posted strong momentum recently but also carries a lofty valuation, making the timing of an investment especially important.

This article explores Palantir’s business and performance, identifies key upcoming catalysts, reviews the risks, and offers a view on whether now is the right time to buy ahead of Nov. 3.

What Palantir’s business and recent performance look like

Palantir began primarily as a government-software provider, specialising in defence, intelligence, and public-sector analytics, but over the past few years it has pushed into the commercial sector with its platforms. Its core offerings include data-integration and analytics tools, now increasingly packaged with AI capabilities. For example, recent commentary notes its

“strategic expansion into enterprise AI and its entrenched defence contracts”.

In terms of recent performance, Palantir delivered a standout second quarter of 2025: revenue reached approximately US$1.004 billion, representing 48% year-over-year growth. The U.S. business stood out: U.S. revenue grew 68 % y/y to around $733 million, with U.S. commercial revenue climbing 93% y/y to about $306 million. 

Palantir also raised its guidance for full-year 2025 revenue to around US$4.14-4.15 billion, up from earlier forecasts.The financial turnaround is significant: not only is growth accelerating, but the company is showing stronger profitability metrics. According to one source, the company’s “Rule of 40” score (a combined metric of growth rate plus margin) reached 94% in Q2 2025. 

The commercial shift is important because Palantir has historically been heavily reliant on government contracts, a dependence that can bring stability but also risk depending on policy and budget cycles. 

One analysis projects that while “government contracts still account for 55 % of revenue”, Palantir aims to move toward a 55 % commercial revenue mix by 2025. In short, the business is performing well: strong growth, improved margin, and guidance that suggests management expects momentum to continue.

Key catalysts ahead of Nov. 3

Several factors could move Palantir’s stock around the Nov. 3 earnings release: first, the event itself is a near-term catalyst. The company will report its Q3 2025 results on Monday, November 3, after the U.S. market closes. A favourable result or strong guidance could trigger an upward move; conversely, anything short of expectations might lead to a pullback, especially given how richly valued the stock is.

Second, commercial momentum remains a driver. Given that Palantir’s U.S. commercial business grew 93 % y/y in Q2, the question becomes whether that trend continues in Q3 and beyond. Sustained commercial growth helps reduce the over-dependence on government contracts and opens a larger market opportunity. 

Third, new contract wins especially in the defence/government sector or large enterprise deals could spark investor enthusiasm. Reports of a major multi-year contract or expansion into new geographies often act as positive surprises.

Fourth, guidance will matter. With much of the strong performance already recognised, the market may focus on what Palantir says about Q4 2025 and next year. Upward revisions to guidance or commentary about pipeline strength could be meaningful. 

Finally, macro and sector factors, such as government spending, budget priorities, and the pace of AI adoption, also play into Palantir’s story. For instance, one commentary states that upcoming events such as conference showcases and defense deals “could be the comeback catalyst the company needs”. 

Risks & reasons to consider waiting

Despite the positives, there are several risks that counsel caution and may support a decision to wait rather than buy ahead of Nov. 3. The most immediate is valuation: the stock trades at a high multiple relative to earnings expectations, and several analysts warn that even a modest earnings miss or weak guidance could trigger a sizable drop.

Second, execution risk remains. Although Palantir has improved, it still has long sales-cycles in many enterprise and government deals, and delays or softer activity can show up in future quarters. A forecast note warned that while growth is “clearly solid”, investors need to pay “closer attention to the risks” in Palantir’s model. Third, reliance on government contracts brings its own risks: budget reductions, procurement delays, or shifts in policy could harm revenues. 

One event in early 2025 saw Palantir stock drop when news emerged of potential defence budget cuts. Fourth,-market sentiment and macro headwinds may be important. Even if Palantir posts good numbers, if the broader market rotates away from high-growth tech stocks or the AI narrative weakens, Palantir could suffer disproportionately due to its high expectations.

Finally, the timing risk of buying just before a major earnings event deserves mention. If a shareholder buys ahead of Nov. 3 and the market already has high expectations priced in, the upside may be limited, while the downside risk (in case of a mis-step) may be larger. 

Some readers of Palantir’s investor case believe it may make sense to wait until after the results to gain clarity. For those reasons, waiting might offset risk without sacrificing much potential in the near term.

Conclusion

In summary, Palantir offers a compelling story: accelerating growth, an improving margin profile, strong positioning in both government and commercial markets, and upward guidance. For an investor with a long-term horizon who believes in Palantir’s ability to execute and sees the next several years as favourable for data/an­alytics and related markets, buying now could be justified. 

However, for someone more sensitive to risk, or who prefers more confirmation of future momentum rather than paying today’s premium, waiting until after the Nov. 3 report makes sense.

In practical terms, one approach is to consider buying a partial position ahead of Nov. 3 if you are comfortable with the risk, and then evaluating the company’s results and guidance before adding further. Another approach is to hold off entirely until after the earnings release, then assess how the market reacts. 

Either way, it is important to ensure that any investment in Palantir fits your overall asset allocation, given its growth-oriented nature and higher risk profile. In short, Palantir is worth watching closely now, but whether you buy ahead or wait depends in large part on your risk tolerance and belief in its execution going forward.